Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
Lommel United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge had 6.1 days of rest, Lommel United 6.2 and had to travel 146 km.
Away travel146 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Cercle Brugge45%
Draw25%
Lommel United30%
Cercle Brugge38%
Draw26%
Lommel United36%
Cercle Brugge45%
Draw25%
Lommel United30%
Cercle Brugge37%
Draw25%
Lommel United37%
Cercle Brugge45%
Draw24%
Lommel United31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Lommel United
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
24
AttackIn forecast
32
28
DefenceIn forecast
41
34
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeLommel United
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
18.33
ShotsContext
10.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
26%
On target shareContext
27%
13.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
71%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
24.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
6.00
BlocksContext
9.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
47%
Save rateContext
77%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
344
PassesContext
390
269
Accurate passesContext
323
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.18
11.33
FoulsContext
6.67
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.11
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.78
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+1.05
90%
Scored inContext
78%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.90
ShotsContext
9.56
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
73%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
22%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.50
Shots allowedContext
17.78
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.10
BlocksContext
5.56
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
55%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
357
PassesContext
402
276
Accurate passesContext
322
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.15
10.80
FoulsContext
8.67
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
DDL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 2 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Lommel United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 146 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
2I. Diakité
12Valy Konaté
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
42L. Mondele
15G. Magnée
71V. Martens
9S. Ngoura
13D. Vanzeir
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
5Dries Wouters
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
10Tom Reyners
21S. Appuah
6J. Pelupessy
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
15Lucas Schoofs
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Lommel United · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.33 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Cercle Brugge | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.33 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 33% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.33 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 14.66 | 10.33 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 0.66 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 10.55 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.56 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 2.22
Red cards0.36league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 15%
Fouls24.1league 21.0
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins55%league 52%
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D29 Nov 25A · Zulte Waregem1–12
Lommel UnitedNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Lommel United3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
