Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. Cercle Brugge had 6.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 6 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cercle Brugge33%
Draw25%
St. Truiden42%
Cercle Brugge34%
Draw26%
St. Truiden40%
Cercle Brugge33%
Draw25%
St. Truiden42%
Cercle Brugge27%
Draw24%
St. Truiden50%
Cercle Brugge34%
Draw25%
St. Truiden41%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 38
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
24
AttackIn forecast
37
28
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeSt. Truiden
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
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Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.50
ShotsContext
15.40
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
38%
On target shareContext
30%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
72%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.10
BlocksContext
5.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
58%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
367
PassesContext
502
284
Accurate passesContext
428
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.60
FoulsContext
10.10
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
D
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 1 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
- D8 AugA · Standard Liege2–21.0 xPts
St. Truiden
D
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 1 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
- D8 AugH · Lommel United1–11.7 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 353 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
24Geoffrey Kondo
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
12Valy Konaté
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
42L. Mondele
15G. Magnée
71V. Martens
13D. Vanzeir
9S. Ngoura
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
4L. Mbe Soh
26V. Musliu
23J. Pupe
18N. Ishiwatari
8A. Sissako
60R. Vanwesemael
14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui
19F. Soelle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
No home games yet this season.
St. Truiden · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 8 Mar 2026St. Truiden2–1Cercle Brugge
- 29 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge1–1St. Truiden
- 4 Feb 2024Cercle Brugge4–1St. Truiden
- 27 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–2Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 11.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 18.00 | 8.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 10.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.00
Red cards0.18league 0.22
Cards 5+32%league 33%
Fouls20.5league 21.7
Penalties0.34league 0.33
Home wins37%league 67%
Cercle Brugge6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Apr 26A · Dender4–10
- W20 Feb 26A · Gent1–04
- D26 Oct 25H · Zulte Waregem1–10
- W23 Aug 25A · Standard Liege3–03
- L2 Mar 24H · KV Mechelen2–31
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 May 26H · Union St. Gilloise2–11
- W21 Dec 25H · KV Mechelen1–02
- D9 Dec 23H · OH Leuven1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
St. Truiden1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
