Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 23). Charleroi had 8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Charleroi36%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen36%
Charleroi37%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
Charleroi36%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen36%
Charleroi30%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen43%
Charleroi37%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 29
Team strength
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
43
AttackIn forecast
18
50
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiKV Mechelen
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
88%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.88
ShotsContext
11.38
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
35%
On target shareContext
41%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
62%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.63
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.75
BlocksContext
5.00
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
73%
Save rateContext
91%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
353
PassesContext
386
278
Accurate passesContext
316
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.38
FoulsContext
8.63
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.13
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.88
ShotsContext
11.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
62%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.63
Shots allowedContext
16.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.75
BlocksContext
4.80
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
73%
Save rateContext
88%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
353
PassesContext
406
278
Accurate passesContext
334
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.38
FoulsContext
8.50
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km193 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 193 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
56A. Boukamir
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
3José Marsà
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
11B. Bafdili
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
KV Mechelen · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Charleroi wins0 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 27 Dec 2023Charleroi3–1KV Mechelen
- 11 Nov 2023KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 9.01 | 13.00 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 3.63 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.01 | 11.90 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.50 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 3.90
Red cards0.28league 0.23
Cards 5+38%league 44%
Fouls22.3league 23.0
Penalties0.17league 0.31
Home wins48%league 41%
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–04
- W25 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo3–23
- L16 Sep 23A · Club Brugge KV2–43
KV Mechelen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–23
- D11 Feb 24H · Genk1–11
- L12 Aug 23A · RWDM0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi8 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
KV Mechelen8 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
