Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Charleroi. Charleroi had 6 days of rest, KV Mechelen 6 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Charleroi57%
Draw22%
KV Mechelen21%
Charleroi47%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen28%
Charleroi57%
Draw22%
KV Mechelen21%
Charleroi49%
Draw24%
KV Mechelen27%
Charleroi57%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 39
Team strength
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
43
AttackIn forecast
18
50
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiKV Mechelen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
23.50
ShotsContext
12.00
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
25%
16.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.50
BlocksContext
2.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
100%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
507
PassesContext
449
441
Accurate passesContext
356
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.23
Team ratingContext
6.69
7.00
FoulsContext
9.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.10
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
32%
On target shareContext
27%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
67%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.75
BlocksContext
3.56
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
89%
Save rateContext
62%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
421
PassesContext
396
354
Accurate passesContext
310
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.60
FoulsContext
9.10
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
WW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km219 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 6 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 219 km | 107 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi
6A. Boukamir
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2L. Marijnissen
39M. Decoene
7T. Koudou
26D. Praet
6F. Hammar
17C. Van Meirvenne
9M. van Brederode
19M. Lohunanu-Mbasi
14B. Raman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
KV Mechelen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Charleroi wins0 draws3 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 7 Dec 2025KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi
- 28 Sep 2025Charleroi0–2KV Mechelen
- 27 Dec 2023Charleroi3–1KV Mechelen
- 11 Nov 2023KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 6.00 | 10.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Charleroi | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 6.70 | 10.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 2.55
Red cards0.18league 0.15
Cards 5+31%league 20%
Fouls20.3league 21.5
Penalties0.33league 0.30
Home wins36%league 50%
Charleroi5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W23 May 26A · Standard Liege2–05
- W10 Apr 26H · Antwerp2–13
- D7 Mar 26A · Dender2–21
- W25 Jan 26A · Antwerp2–02
- L17 Mar 24A · Gent0–52
KV Mechelen9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D17 May 26A · Anderlecht2–24
- D6 Apr 26A · Gent1–10
- L13 Feb 26H · Genk2–32
- L21 Dec 25A · St. Truiden0–12
- W2 Mar 24A · Cercle Brugge3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen2 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 27
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
