Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genk. Club Brugge KV had 7.2 days of rest, Genk 7.1 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Club Brugge KV59%
Draw20%
Genk21%
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw21%
Genk16%
Club Brugge KV59%
Draw20%
Genk21%
Club Brugge KV50%
Draw22%
Genk27%
Club Brugge KV57%
Draw21%
Genk21%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 59
Team strength
Club Brugge KV
Genk
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
86
AttackIn forecast
46
58
DefenceIn forecast
50
62
Form indexContext
54
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVGenk
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.28
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
100%
Scored inContext
83%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.50
ShotsContext
13.17
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
34%
On target shareContext
41%
13.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
74%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.17
Shots allowedContext
12.83
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
3.67
BlocksContext
4.60
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
83%
Save rateContext
70%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
611
PassesContext
497
545
Accurate passesContext
431
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.21
Team ratingContext
7.03
8.00
FoulsContext
11.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
100%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
17.90
ShotsContext
16.00
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
37%
13.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
75%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.13
14.30
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
5.20
BlocksContext
4.33
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
81%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
567
PassesContext
483
499
Accurate passesContext
415
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.26
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.30
FoulsContext
11.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
WLWLW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Genk
WDWDD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel161 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 9 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 164 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
3H. Lee
64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken
8F. Potts
11J. Virgili
10H. Vetlesen
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen
4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Genk · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | W 3–1 H | D 4–4 A |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 26 Dec 2025Genk3–5Club Brugge KV
- 27 Jul 2025Club Brugge KV2–1Genk
- 3 Mar 2024Genk0–3Club Brugge KV
- 28 Sep 2023Club Brugge KV1–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.67 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Club Brugge KV | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.17 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 11.84 | 9.66 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 9.80 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.92league 3.07
Red cards0.31league 0.13
Cards 5+63%league 26%
Fouls23.1league 22.2
Penalties0.24league 0.26
Home wins47%league 49%
Club Brugge KV5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Apr 26A · Union St. Gilloise1–25
- W22 Mar 26H · KV Mechelen4–10
- W26 Dec 25A · Genk5–33
- D24 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo5–51
- D24 Sep 23A · Anderlecht1–11
Genk8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W15 Aug 26H · KVC Westerlo3–23
- L2 May 26A · Charleroi0–20
- L7 Mar 26A · Union St. Gilloise1–22
- L26 Dec 25H · Club Brugge KV3–53
- W28 Sep 25A · St. Truiden2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV6 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Genk6 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 26 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
