Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Sep 21 · 17:30 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 8th · 10 pts · 6 played
2–0Full time
St. Truiden 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 27). Club Brugge KV had 7.9 days of rest, St. Truiden 7 and had to travel.

Rest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw19%
St. Truiden12%
Expected goals 2.29 – 0.85
Club Brugge KV69%
Draw19%
St. Truiden12%
Expected goals 2.20 – 0.81
Club Brugge KV70%
Draw19%
St. Truiden12%
Expected goals 2.29 – 0.85
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw22%
St. Truiden16%
Expected goals 2.05 – 0.95
Club Brugge KV69%
Draw19%
St. Truiden12%
Expected goals 2.20 – 0.81
Over 2.5 61% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)

No weather data yet

RefereeLothar D'hondt
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.26
  • Matches 27

Team strength

Club Brugge KVSt. Truiden
67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
86 AttackIn forecast 37
58 DefenceIn forecast 32
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVSt. Truiden
1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
83% Scored inContext 86%
33% Clean sheetsContext 29%
17.17 ShotsContext 15.14
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43
29% On target shareContext 29%
12.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.71
70% Box shareContext 65%
7% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.40
11.17 Shots allowedContext 9.00
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.29
2.17 BlocksContext 3.14
3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
83% Save rateContext 70%
62% PossessionIn forecast 57%
551 PassesContext 452
480 Accurate passesContext 369
87% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.91
10.17 FoulsContext 12.86
10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.71
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 7 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
90% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
18.80 ShotsContext 14.00
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
39% On target shareContext 29%
13.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
73% Box shareContext 58%
12% ConversionContext 9%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.71
11.10 Shots allowedContext 10.80
2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.50 BlocksContext 3.50
2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
85% Save rateContext 72%
59% PossessionIn forecast 57%
538 PassesContext 486
470 Accurate passesContext 403
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.20 Team ratingContext 6.93
8.50 FoulsContext 12.50
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways210 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.16.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
29N. Jackers(G)
14B. Meijer 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 20H. Vanaken 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 26V. Musliu 5S. Taniguchi 20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 7A. Muja 60R. Vanwesemael
42Keisuke Goto

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.50
St. Truiden · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentClub Brugge KVSt. Truiden
RAAL La Louvière L 0–1 A W 2–1 H
Gent D 1–1 A W 3–1 H
Zulte Waregem W 1–0 A W 2–0 A
Cercle Brugge W 2–0 H D 1–1 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Club Brugge KV wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 17 Mar 2024St. Truiden2–1Club Brugge KV
  • 1 Oct 2023Club Brugge KV1–1St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.171.57
Conceded per game 0.831.00
Match goals 2.002.57 3.14
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%43% 61%
Over 3.5 0%14%
Both teams scored 50%57% 52%
Clean sheets 33%29%
Failed to score 17%14%
Games67
Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.171.57
Conceded per game 0.831.00
Match goals 2.002.57 3.14
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%43% 61%
Over 3.5 0%14%
Both teams scored 50%57% 52%
Clean sheets 33%29%
Failed to score 17%14%
Games67

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.676.57
Corners conceded4.502.86
Match total11.179.439.57
Over 8.583% 5/657% 4/7
Over 9.583% 5/657% 4/7
Over 10.583% 5/643% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.501.29
Opponent cards2.332.29
Match total3.833.584.02
Over 3.567% 4/643% 3/7
Over 4.533% 2/614% 1/7
Club Brugge KVSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.905.60
Corners conceded4.404.30
Match total11.309.909.57
Over 8.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 9.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 10.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.301.00
Opponent cards2.002.10
Match total3.303.104.02
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lothar D'hondt 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.78
Red cards0.33league 0.23
Cards 5+37%league 42%
Fouls24.0league 23.0
Penalties0.26league 0.35
Home wins37%league 42%
Club Brugge KV3 with this referee
Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • D31 Aug 25A · Gent1–12
  • W9 Aug 25H · Cercle Brugge2–02
  • W13 Aug 23A · AS Eupen5–02
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D28 Jan 24H · Genk1–12
  • D24 Sep 23A · Genk3–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV6 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
2 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
St. Truiden7 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
5 1 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
3 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
7 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
5 61-75
3 2 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Genk Charleroi 01 Gent Dender 30 OH Leuven RAAL La Louvière 12 Anderlecht Antwerp 00 KVC Westerlo Standard Liege 02 Club Brugge KV St. Truiden 20 KV Mechelen Cercle Brugge 00