Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 41 pts · 21 played
LWWWL
First leg1–0
4–3Full time
Zulte Waregem
10th · 26 pts · 21 played
DDLLW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 27). Club Brugge KV had 7.9 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 7.1 and had to travel 38 km.
Away travel38 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Club Brugge KV67%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem13%
Club Brugge KV66%
Draw21%
Zulte Waregem13%
Club Brugge KV67%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem13%
Club Brugge KV60%
Draw23%
Zulte Waregem18%
Club Brugge KV66%
Draw21%
Zulte Waregem13%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
Club Brugge KVZulte Waregem
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
86
AttackIn forecast
27
58
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVZulte Waregem
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
86%
Scored inContext
76%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
15.81
ShotsContext
11.33
5.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
33%
On target shareContext
37%
11.05
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.93
OffsidesContext
1.79
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.14
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
2.71
BlocksContext
3.47
3.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
69%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
548
PassesContext
395
476
Accurate passesContext
319
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.19
FoulsContext
10.67
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.24
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.90
ShotsContext
10.90
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
33%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
74%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.40
BlocksContext
3.44
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
58%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
535
PassesContext
405
464
Accurate passesContext
324
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.70
FoulsContext
10.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel38 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Jan | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 38 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
58J. Spileers
64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
67M. Diakhon
17R. Vermant
9Carlos Forbs
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
19Benoit Nyssen
39M. Aké
18A. Ementa
10A. Traoré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
2.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-2
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.20
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-4
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Genk | W 5–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Gent | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Dender | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 5–5 H | L 1–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 38 of 60 · 1.90 per game | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Club Brugge KV wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Zulte Waregem0–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Club Brugge KV | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.26 | 4.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 6.05 | |
| Match total | 11.21 | 10.21 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 84% 16/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 79% 15/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 68% 13/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.67 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 8.38 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.83
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+8%league 40%
Fouls21.8league 22.9
Penalties0.08league 0.28
Home wins42%league 42%
Club Brugge KV2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Dec 25A · Dender5–10
- W18 Oct 25A · OH Leuven1–01
Zulte Waregem3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Dec 25A · Antwerp1–20
- W27 Sep 25H · Antwerp2–00
- L2 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV21 games · scored 38 · conceded 25
3
5
0-15
7
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
8
76-90
Zulte Waregem21 games · scored 28 · conceded 30
3
6
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
1
0-15
5
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
