Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. AS Roma were without B. Cristante. Como had 20.9 days of rest, AS Roma 21.8 and had to travel 515 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel515 kmRest days20.9 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Como39%
Draw23%
AS Roma38%
Como38%
Draw26%
AS Roma36%
Como39%
Draw23%
AS Roma39%
Como31%
Draw22%
AS Roma46%
Como38%
Draw23%
AS Roma38%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
20°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 66%
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 74
Team strength
Como
AS Roma
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
72
AttackIn forecast
72
67
DefenceIn forecast
75
85
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoAS Roma
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
2.54
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
23.00
ShotsContext
20.60
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
31%
On target shareContext
34%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
14.80
63%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.80
15.00
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.60
BlocksContext
1.67
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
65%
Save rateContext
77%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
585
PassesContext
542
524
Accurate passesContext
471
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.26
7.40
FoulsContext
12.80
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
2.32
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
19.40
ShotsContext
17.10
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
33%
On target shareContext
37%
13.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
69%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.89
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.30
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.44
BlocksContext
2.00
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
73%
Save rateContext
77%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
541
PassesContext
548
483
Accurate passesContext
481
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.15
9.30
FoulsContext
12.70
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
WWWWL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
AS Roma
WWDWD
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel515 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 85 · 11 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.8Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 515 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
16Kaiki
99T. Chalobah
4Jacobo Ramón
27Yan Couto
7L. da Cunha
5M. Perrone
8M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
11Assane Diao
9A. Douvikas
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
95P. Gollini(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
15M. de Roon
20N. Molina
7L. Pellegrini
21P. Dybala
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −6.1% · Defence line −2.9% of weighted minutes
- ATT M. Kean Rotation 6.68 Att −6.1%
- DEF I. Smolčić Rotation 6.78 Def −2.9%
AS Roma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −10.9% · Defence line −7.6% of weighted minutes
- MID B. Cristante Starter 7.02 Att −10.9% Def −7.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AS Roma-0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Como wins0 draws2 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 15 Mar 2026Como2–1AS Roma
- 15 Dec 2025AS Roma1–0Como
- 2 Mar 2025AS Roma2–1Como
- 15 Dec 2024Como2–0AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Como | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 7.60 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Como | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.20 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.26
Red cards0.28league 0.02
Cards 5+34%league 25%
Fouls23.9league 22.1
Penalties0.15league 0.13
Home wins36%league 47%
Como3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D2 May 26H · Napoli0–02
- W19 Jan 26A · Lazio3–03
- D19 Oct 24H · Parma1–11
AS Roma9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L3 Jan 26A · Atalanta0–12
- W27 Apr 25A · Inter1–02
- D2 Feb 25H · Napoli1–12
- D29 Dec 24A · AC Milan1–14
- W31 Oct 24H · Torino1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como5 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
AS Roma5 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 26 · conceded 6
3
0-15
5
16-30
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
