Çorum FK
Attack0%
Defense risk−3%
Our take
Çorum FK were slight favourites.
Çorum FK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rizespor. Çorum FK had 5.2 days of rest, Rizespor 6 and had to travel 472 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel472 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Çorum FK50%
Draw24%
Rizespor26%
Çorum FK50%
Draw26%
Rizespor24%
Çorum FK50%
Draw24%
Rizespor26%
Çorum FK42%
Draw25%
Rizespor33%
Çorum FK49%
Draw24%
Rizespor26%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Çorum)
12°CLight rain
- Precipitation 3.2 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · TürkiyeDavut Dakul Celik
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Çorum FK
Rizespor
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
31
AttackIn forecast
22
36
DefenceIn forecast
35
52
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack−1%
Defense risk+8%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Çorum FKRizespor
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+1.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
86%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.57
ShotsContext
15.71
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
55%
Box shareContext
56%
18%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
15.43
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
5.00
BlocksContext
4.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
473
PassesContext
443
409
Accurate passesContext
376
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.29
FoulsContext
10.14
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+1.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
86%
Scored inContext
60%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.57
ShotsContext
16.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
55%
Box shareContext
57%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.43
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
5.00
BlocksContext
4.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
473
PassesContext
441
409
Accurate passesContext
375
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.29
FoulsContext
10.00
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Çorum FK
LWWLW
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km883 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 9 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
Rizespor
WLWDL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel472 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 36 · 7 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Çorum FK |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 883 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Çorum FK
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
6H. Smolčić
2Ç. Söyüncü
5Alexandre Penetra
24A. Borza
10M. Diomande
3B. Özdemir
11G. Sazdağı
89A. Kyziridis
19J. Ramírez
7C. Ünder
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss
93M. Sagnan
21S. Bakayoko
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Çorum FK
No reported absences
Rizespor
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
1 without recent minutes (no impact): H. Aliqulov
Total impact vs full squads
- Çorum FK+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rizespor+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Çorum FK · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Çorum FK | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 5–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.29 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.90 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.17 | 9.50 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.15 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.17 | 8.89 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 2.90 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davut Dakul Celik Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 3.95
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+100%league 43%
Fouls25.0league 24.4
Penalties0.00league 0.37
Home wins0%league 44%
Çorum FKNo previous matches with this referee.
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Çorum FK7 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Rizespor7 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Çorum FK7 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
