Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 20). Cremonese had 15.8 days of rest, AS Roma 13.9 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days15.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Cremonese16%
Draw23%
AS Roma61%
Cremonese16%
Draw22%
AS Roma61%
Cremonese16%
Draw23%
AS Roma61%
Cremonese12%
Draw20%
AS Roma68%
Cremonese16%
Draw22%
AS Roma62%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 47
Team strength
Cremonese
AS Roma
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
16
AttackIn forecast
72
30
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseAS Roma
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.45
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
73%
Scored inContext
73%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
7.82
ShotsContext
14.18
3.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
40%
On target shareContext
36%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
57%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.89
15.64
Shots allowedContext
10.55
5.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
4.50
BlocksContext
2.22
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
78%
Save rateContext
84%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
371
PassesContext
489
293
Accurate passesContext
412
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.82
FoulsContext
14.09
12.36
Fouls sufferedContext
15.73
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.20
ShotsContext
14.80
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
38%
On target shareContext
35%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
57%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.11
BlocksContext
2.30
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
374
PassesContext
491
294
Accurate passesContext
414
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.60
FoulsContext
14.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel413 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Nov | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
22R. Floriani Mussolini
38W. Bondo
27J. Vandeputte
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
24J. Ziółkowski
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
35T. Baldanzi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AS Roma+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
AS Roma · Away
2.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Cremonese wins0 draws1 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 28 Feb 2023Cremonese2–1AS Roma
- 22 Aug 2022AS Roma1–0Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 0.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 1.55 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 36% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 18% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 18% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Cremonese | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.90 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.91 | 5.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.64 | |
| Match total | 8.91 | 9.28 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.18 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cremonese | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.60 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.49league 3.93
Red cards0.28league 0.12
Cards 5+77%league 40%
Fouls27.9league 26.2
Penalties0.15league 0.30
Home wins38%league 37%
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Jan 23H · Juventus0–15
AS Roma5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Torino0–12
- W22 Oct 23H · Monza1–02
- L27 May 23A · Fiorentina1–23
- D9 Nov 22A · Sassuolo1–13
- W3 Oct 21H · Empoli2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese11 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
AS Roma11 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
