Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 21). Como usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Cremonese had 7 days of rest, Como 7.4 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days7 · 7.4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese19%
Draw26%
Como55%
Cremonese20%
Draw24%
Como57%
Cremonese19%
Draw26%
Como55%
Cremonese14%
Draw24%
Como62%
Cremonese19%
Draw26%
Como55%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 77
Team strength
Cremonese
Como
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
16
AttackIn forecast
72
30
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseComo
0.84
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.76
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
54%
Scored inContext
76%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
51%
8.76
ShotsContext
14.24
3.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.95
38%
On target shareContext
35%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.28
58%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.19
OffsidesContext
1.64
15.00
Shots allowedContext
8.78
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.23
4.37
BlocksContext
3.00
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
73%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
379
PassesContext
518
301
Accurate passesContext
454
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.19
FoulsContext
12.97
12.41
Fouls sufferedContext
12.05
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
8.70
ShotsContext
14.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
44%
On target shareContext
33%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
60%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.80
Shots allowedContext
7.90
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
2.67
BlocksContext
3.33
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
73%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
408
PassesContext
502
338
Accurate passesContext
444
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.90
FoulsContext
12.20
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km542 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest7.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 7.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 542 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 89.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
15M. Bianchetti
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
2M. Thorsby
7A. Zerbin
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
23M. Perrone
33L. da Cunha
17Jesús Rodríguez
20M. Baturina
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
0.89points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-8
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.39
Como · Away
1.78points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.72
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 3–0 HL 0–1 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Lazio | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 108 · 0.92 per game | 67 of 108 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Cremonese wins1 draws0 Como wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025Como1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.84 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.41 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 41% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 51% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 24% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Cremonese | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.49 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.06 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 7.38 | 8.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 21/35 | 26% 9/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 15/35 | 21% 7/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 9/35 | 18% 6/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.46 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 15/37 | 68% 25/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 8/37 | 46% 17/37 | |
| Cremonese | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 8.20 | 8.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.50 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 3.67
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+65%league 34%
Fouls25.0league 24.6
Penalties0.17league 0.27
Home wins38%league 39%
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Oct 22H · Sampdoria0–13
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Apr 26A · Udinese0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese37 games · scored 31 · conceded 53
4
9
0-15
3
7
16-30
5
11
31-45
7
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
9
8
76-90
Como36 games · scored 59 · conceded 27
11
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
12
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Como10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
