Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Inter. Cremonese had 7.2 days of rest, Inter 8.9 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days7.2 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cremonese9%
Draw17%
Inter74%
Cremonese9%
Draw17%
Inter75%
Cremonese8%
Draw17%
Inter74%
Cremonese6%
Draw14%
Inter80%
Cremonese9%
Draw16%
Inter75%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 104
Team strength
Cremonese
Inter
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
16
AttackIn forecast
91
30
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseInter
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.27
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
55%
Scored inContext
95%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.36
ShotsContext
17.95
3.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
37%
On target shareContext
33%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.59
56%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.11
15.95
Shots allowedContext
8.27
5.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.05
4.57
BlocksContext
2.94
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
77%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
378
PassesContext
526
296
Accurate passesContext
458
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.91
FoulsContext
13.77
12.59
Fouls sufferedContext
11.64
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
30%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.90
ShotsContext
18.30
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
34%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.40
55%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.11
16.70
Shots allowedContext
7.60
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.80
BlocksContext
3.00
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.38
79%
Save rateContext
55%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
380
PassesContext
526
296
Accurate passesContext
457
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.20
FoulsContext
13.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km136 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 136 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
23F. Ceccherini
6F. Baschirotto
55F. Folino
3G. Pezzella
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
7A. Zerbin
24F. Terracciano
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
16D. Frattesi
11L. de Lima
10L. Martínez
94F. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Inter-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-3
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.30
Inter · Away
2.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-2
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 3–4 A |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game | 49 of 63 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cremonese wins0 draws3 Inter wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Inter4–1Cremonese
- 28 Jan 2023Cremonese1–2Inter
- 30 Aug 2022Inter3–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 2.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.23 | 3.14 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 59% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 5% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Cremonese | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.48 | 6.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 2.77 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 9.41 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 3.18 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 6/22 | 18% 4/22 | |
| Cremonese | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.20 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 3.80
Red cards0.29league 0.17
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 25.5
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins36%league 38%
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Jan 23H · Monza2–32
Inter8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W18 Oct 25A · AS Roma1–03
- W23 May 25A · Como2–03
- W16 Mar 25A · Atalanta2–03
- W20 Oct 24A · AS Roma1–03
- W3 Dec 23A · Napoli3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese22 games · scored 20 · conceded 29
3
6
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
6
3
76-90
Inter22 games · scored 50 · conceded 19
8
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
8
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
13
6
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
