Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Cremonese had 9.9 days of rest, Lazio 6.9 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days9.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese22%
Draw27%
Lazio51%
Cremonese22%
Draw25%
Lazio54%
Cremonese21%
Draw27%
Lazio53%
Cremonese17%
Draw25%
Lazio58%
Cremonese22%
Draw25%
Lazio53%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 77
Team strength
Cremonese
Lazio
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
16
AttackIn forecast
53
30
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseLazio
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.97
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
56%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
8.68
ShotsContext
10.88
3.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
36%
On target shareContext
37%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.73
60%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.56
15.79
Shots allowedContext
12.85
5.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
4.55
BlocksContext
3.41
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
74%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
481
291
Accurate passesContext
416
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.35
FoulsContext
10.12
12.53
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
40%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.10
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
39%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
69%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.80
BlocksContext
2.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
66%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
364
PassesContext
509
289
Accurate passesContext
451
80%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.00
FoulsContext
9.50
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest9.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel413 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Apr | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
3G. Pezzella
5S. Luperto
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
7A. Zerbin
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
22R. Floriani Mussolini
99A. Sanabria
90F. Bonazzoli
Lazio
Confirmed XI
40E. Motta(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
13A. Romagnoli
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
4Patric
26T. Bašić
10M. Zaccagni
27D. Maldini
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Lazio-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
0.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-7
- Scored
- 0.81
- Conceded
- 1.44
Lazio · Away
1.24points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-6
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 99 · 0.82 per game | 47 of 99 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cremonese wins1 draws2 Lazio wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 20 Dec 2025Lazio0–0Cremonese
- 28 May 2023Lazio3–2Cremonese
- 18 Sep 2022Cremonese0–4Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.97 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.06 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 26% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 26% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 44% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Cremonese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.34 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.34 | 3.97 | |
| Match total | 9.68 | 8.04 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 20/32 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 14/32 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 9/32 | 13% 4/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.68 | |
| Match total | 3.41 | 4.89 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 13/34 | 74% 25/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 8/34 | 59% 20/34 | |
| Cremonese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 8.89 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.40 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.70
Red cards0.22league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 35%
Fouls22.5league 24.8
Penalties0.19league 0.28
Home wins42%league 40%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Nov 25H · Juventus1–21
- L14 May 23A · Juventus0–20
Lazio5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Jan 26A · Lecce0–01
- D18 May 25A · Inter2–24
- W6 Apr 25A · Atalanta1–02
- L16 Dec 24H · Inter0–62
- L12 Sep 21A · AC Milan0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese34 games · scored 26 · conceded 51
3
9
0-15
2
7
16-30
4
11
31-45
6
8
46-60
3
9
61-75
8
7
76-90
Lazio33 games · scored 35 · conceded 32
5
4
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
13
6
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 5 · conceded 18
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
