Crystal Palace vs Manchester City – 28 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 28 · 20:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–4Full time

Manchester City 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 6.2 days of rest, Manchester City 5.3 and had to travel 262 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel262 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Crystal Palace26%

Draw23%

Manchester City51%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.80

Crystal Palace24%

Draw24%

Manchester City51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67

Crystal Palace25%

Draw23%

Manchester City51%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.81

Crystal Palace20%

Draw21%

Manchester City59%

Expected goals 1.07 – 2.02

Crystal Palace26%

Draw24%

Manchester City50%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.72

Over 2.5 58% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

20°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.6 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 76%

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 143

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

64 AttackIn forecast 92

54 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.50 ShotsContext 18.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

39% On target shareContext 33%

9.13 Shots in the boxContext 12.90

73% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.10 Shots allowedContext 9.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

65% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 62%

360 PassesContext 586

284 Accurate passesContext 521

79% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.10

9.80 FoulsContext 8.70

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace L

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 0 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L22 AugA · Everton0–21.2 xPts

Manchester City W

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 67 · 3 pts vs 1.0 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W23 AugH · Bournemouth2–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug	5.3Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

17T. Tomiyasu 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili

9E. Nketiah 10Yeremy Pino

22J. Strand Larsen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Donnarumma(G)

24J. Gvardiol 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 45A. Khusanov

5E. Anderson 33N. O'Reilly

42A. Semenyo 10M. Cherki 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Manchester City-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home No home games yet this season.

Manchester City · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Crystal Palace wins3 draws6 Manchester City wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.40 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

13 May 2026Manchester City3–0Crystal Palace
14 Dec 2025Crystal Palace0–3Manchester City
12 Apr 2025Manchester City5–2Crystal Palace
7 Dec 2024Crystal Palace2–2Manchester City
6 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–4Manchester City
16 Dec 2023Manchester City2–2Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Crystal Palace	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.80	0.90
Match goals	2.60	2.90	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	—	8.00
Corners conceded	—	3.00
Match total	—	11.00	8.44
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	—	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	1.00	3.00	3.89
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Crystal Palace	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	9.10
Corners conceded	7.00	4.30
Match total	10.44	13.40	8.44
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	100% 10/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	100% 10/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.10
Match total	3.10	3.60	3.89
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 143 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.50

Red cards0.13league 0.10

Cards 5+28%league 30%

Fouls23.1league 24.3

Penalties0.17league 0.20

Home wins46%league 70%

Crystal Palace17 with this referee

Record6-4-7 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds3

L25 Apr 26A · Liverpool1–33
W12 Apr 26H · Newcastle2–10
W5 Mar 26A · Tottenham3–12
D7 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–02
D5 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–12

Manchester City13 with this referee

Record8-2-3 Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

L24 May 26H · Aston Villa1–21
W22 Apr 26A · Burnley1–00
W6 Dec 25H · Sunderland3–01
W25 May 25A · Fulham2–00
W15 Feb 25H · Newcastle4–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.