Deportivo La Coruna
Attack+15%
Defense risk−5%
Deportivo La Coruna
8th · 10 pts · 8 played
WDLDL
1–1Full time
Levante
17th · 6 pts · 7 played
WDLLD
Our take
Deportivo La Coruna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Deportivo La Coruna. Deportivo La Coruna were without P. Aubameyang and L. Amatucci. Deportivo La Coruna had 5.2 days of rest, Levante 4 and had to travel 796 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel796 kmRest days5.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Deportivo La Coruna43%
Draw26%
Levante31%
Deportivo La Coruna42%
Draw27%
Levante31%
Deportivo La Coruna45%
Draw25%
Levante30%
Deportivo La Coruna35%
Draw26%
Levante39%
Deportivo La Coruna43%
Draw24%
Levante32%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Coruña)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.5 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 95%
Referee · SpainManuel Jesus Orellana Cid
- Cards per match 6.1
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 14
Team strength
Deportivo La CorunaLevante
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
40
AttackIn forecast
55
57
DefenceIn forecast
41
42
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack+11%
Defense risk−14%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Deportivo La CorunaLevante
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
88%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.00
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
36%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.75
Shots allowedContext
15.57
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.71
3.38
BlocksContext
3.29
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
69%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
453
PassesContext
375
385
Accurate passesContext
304
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.50
FoulsContext
9.57
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
67%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.50
BlocksContext
3.33
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
70%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
447
PassesContext
359
382
Accurate passesContext
292
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.60
FoulsContext
9.40
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Deportivo La Coruna
WDLDL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,038 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Levante
WDLLD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel796 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 45 · 5 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Deportivo La Coruna |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 796 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,038 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed XI
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata
22B. Ede
20J. Giménez
23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez
8Diego Villares
21Mario Soriano
19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo
10Peke
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3Ifeanyi Ndukwe
4Adrián de la Fuente
29Nacho Pérez
6Reque
20Oriol Rey
18E. Bardeli
24T. Fernandez
9Iván Romero
7Roger Brugué
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Deportivo La Coruna
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −40.2% · Defence line −5.6% of weighted minutes
- ATT P. Aubameyang Core 7.59 Att −26.2%
- MID L. Amatucci Starter 6.66 Att −8.9% Def −4.8%
- ATT Z. Eddahchouri Rotation 6.85 Att −3.6%
- MID Marc Casadó Rotation 6.37 Att −1.5% Def −0.8%
Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −8.4% · Defence line −0.7% of weighted minutes
- ATT E. Eyong Rotation 6.55 Att −6.6%
- MID Hugo Sotelo Rotation 6.45 Att −1.8% Def −0.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Deportivo La Coruna-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Levante+1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Deportivo La Coruna · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Levante · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Deportivo La Coruna | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 5–2 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Villarreal | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Malaga | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Deportivo La Coruna | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.71 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 71% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 57% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 43% | |
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 30% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Deportivo La Coruna | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.84 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.71 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.66 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid Spain · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.57league 4.33
Red cards0.57league 0.29
Cards 5+79%league 55%
Fouls29.5league 24.7
Penalties0.50league 0.36
Home wins57%league 45%
Deportivo La Coruna1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25H · Castellón1–34
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Deportivo La Coruna8 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Levante7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
