La Liga Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 30 · 18:30 Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña
Deportivo La Coruna 13th · 2 pts · 2 played
3–1Full time
Valencia 17th · 1 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Deportivo La Coruna had 5.9 days of rest, Valencia 4.9 and had to travel 796 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel796 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Deportivo La Coruna35%
Draw27%
Valencia38%
Expected goals 1.22 – 1.27
Deportivo La Coruna36%
Draw26%
Valencia38%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36
Deportivo La Coruna34%
Draw27%
Valencia39%
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.29
Deportivo La Coruna29%
Draw26%
Valencia45%
Expected goals 1.09 – 1.43
Deportivo La Coruna35%
Draw27%
Valencia38%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.30
Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Coruña)
22°CClear
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 14 km/h
  • Humidity 63%
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.22
  • Matches 46

Team strength

Deportivo La CorunaValencia
42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 51
40 AttackIn forecast 39
57 DefenceIn forecast 52
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Deportivo La CorunaValencia
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.85
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.69
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.85
100% Scored inContext 0%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
7.00 ShotsContext 12.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
50% On target shareContext 21%
4.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 56%
14% ConversionContext 0%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.00 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
75% Save rateContext 83%
42% PossessionIn forecast 43%
417 PassesContext 429
357 Accurate passesContext 359
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.86
14.50 FoulsContext 13.50
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.25
1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.05
100% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.40 ShotsContext 12.90
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11
40% On target shareContext 29%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
68% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40
10.90 Shots allowedContext 11.00
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
2.90 BlocksContext 3.00
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
79% Save rateContext 76%
47% PossessionIn forecast 43%
434 PassesContext 368
373 Accurate passesContext 298
86% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.84
12.90 FoulsContext 12.30
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Deportivo La Coruna
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,626 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 42 · 2 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • D24 AugA · Malaga1–11.0 xPts
  • D17 AugH · Elche1–11.6 xPts
Valencia
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel796 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 35 · 1 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
  • L25 AugH · Real Betis0–11.5 xPts
  • D22 AugH · Celta Vigo0–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Deportivo La Coruna Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.9La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Aug4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km796 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,626 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.16.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Deportivo La Coruna Confirmed XI
4-4-2
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 4L. Noubi 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 16L. Amatucci 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
7P. Aubameyang 32B. Nsongo
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Valencia Confirmed XI
5-4-1
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
21Jesús Vázquez 4M. Diakhaby 5César Tárrega 22Arnau Martínez 11Luis Rioja
8Javi Guerra 18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic 39R. Sato
6U. Sadiq
+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Deportivo La Coruna Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Deportivo La Coruna+1.1 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Valencia-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Deportivo La Coruna · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Valencia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Deportivo La CorunaValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.000.00
Conceded per game 1.000.50
Match goals 2.000.50 2.49
Over 1.5 100%0%
Over 2.5 0%0% 45%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 100%0% 51%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22
Deportivo La CorunaValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.20
Conceded per game 1.001.10
Match goals 2.002.30 2.49
Over 1.5 100%60%
Over 2.5 0%30% 45%
Over 3.5 0%20%
Both teams scored 100%50% 51%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games210

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Deportivo La CorunaValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.004.50
Corners conceded6.502.00
Match total9.506.5010.50
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards3.002.00
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total4.504.004.50
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Deportivo La CorunaValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.304.40
Corners conceded4.805.00
Match total9.109.4010.50
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.401.60
Opponent cards2.702.00
Match total5.103.604.50
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 4.31
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+46%league 46%
Fouls23.2league 26.0
Penalties0.22league 0.35
Home wins39%league 50%
Deportivo La Coruna

No previous matches with this referee.

Valencia7 with this referee
Record3-4-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 1
  • W10 May 26A · Athletic Club1–03
  • W15 Feb 26A · Levante2–02
  • D10 Jan 26H · Elche1–12
  • W20 Sep 25H · Athletic Club2–01
  • D26 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Deportivo La Coruna2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Valencia2 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Racing Santander Elche 32 Alaves Villarreal 10 Levante Real Betis 52 Real Sociedad Espanyol 21 Sevilla Atletico Madrid 13 Real Madrid Malaga 40 Deportivo La Coruna Valencia 31 Celta Vigo Athletic Club 02 Osasuna Getafe 10 Barcelona Rayo Vallecano 52