UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 28 · 19:00 Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb 13th · 1 pts · 1 played
First leg1–1 3–2Full time
FC Thun 14th · 1 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel650 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Dinamo Zagreb—%
Draw—%
FC Thun—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Zagreb)

No weather data yet

RefereeRadoslav Gidzhenov
  • Cards per match 5.2
  • Penalties per match 0.10
  • Matches 10

Team strength

Dinamo ZagrebFC Thun
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 26
33 AttackIn forecast 26
44 DefenceIn forecast 24
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Thun

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo ZagrebFC Thun
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def —
1.08 xGVia Att/Def —
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext —
0% Clean sheetsContext —
11.30 ShotsContext —
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
35% On target shareContext —
7.22 Shots in the boxContext —
60% Box shareContext —
12% ConversionContext —
2.13 OffsidesContext —
12.10 Shots allowedContext —
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
3.56 BlocksContext —
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext —
59% Save rateContext —
51% PossessionIn forecast —
481 PassesContext —
406 Accurate passesContext —
85% Pass accuracyContext —
6.77 Team ratingContext —
10.60 FoulsContext —
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext —
1.60 Yellow cardsContext —
0.10 Red cardsContext —
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FC Thun
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel650 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Dinamo Zagreb FC Thun
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km650 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,300 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 11 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one723

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
44I. Filipović(G)
3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez 25Moris Valinčić
27J. Mišić
99M. Oršić 8M. Zajc 10G. Vidović 21M. Lisica
9D. Beljo
FC Thun Confirmed XI
4-4-2
1N. Steffen(G)
27M. Heule 23M. Bürki 19J. Bamert 47F. Fehr
78V. Matoshi 13N. Zoukit 16J. Roth 70N. Reichmuth
96B. Labeau 9F. Dursun

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Dinamo Zagreb Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Thun Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home No home games yet this season.
FC Thun · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Dinamo Zagreb wins1 draws0 FC Thun wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 21 Jul 2026FC Thun1–1Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Dinamo ZagrebFC ThunForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.002.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 0%0%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 100%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11
Dinamo ZagrebFC ThunForecast
Scored per game 1.401.00
Conceded per game 2.201.00
Match goals 3.602.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 70%0%
Over 3.5 60%0%
Both teams scored 70%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games101

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Dinamo ZagrebFC ThunLeague
Corners
Corners won5.009.00
Corners conceded9.005.00
Match total14.0014.008.67
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Cards
Cards2.003.00
Opponent cards3.002.00
Match total5.005.004.58
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Dinamo ZagrebFC ThunLeague
Corners
Corners won4.609.00
Corners conceded4.905.00
Match total9.5014.008.67
Over 8.560% 6/10100% 1/1
Over 9.550% 5/10100% 1/1
Over 10.530% 3/10100% 1/1
Cards
Cards1.703.00
Opponent cards1.602.00
Match total3.305.004.58
Over 3.540% 4/10100% 1/1
Over 4.530% 3/10100% 1/1

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Radoslav Gidzhenov 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.80league 4.14
Red cards0.40league 0.25
Cards 5+70%league 36%
Fouls20.9league 26.0
Penalties0.10league 0.34
Home wins60%league 48%
Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Thun

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Dinamo Zagreb1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
FC Thun1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
2 3 0-15
2 4 16-30
2 7 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
FC Thun1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.