Dinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 4 · 19:00
Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,155 kmRest days7 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Dinamo Zagreb—%
Draw—%
Kauno Žalgiris—%
Weather (Zagreb)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 62
Team strength
Dinamo Zagreb
Kauno Žalgiris
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
6
33
AttackIn forecast
7
44
DefenceIn forecast
8
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKauno Žalgiris
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Dinamo ZagrebKauno Žalgiris
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
26.00
ShotsContext
—
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
23%
On target shareContext
33%
15.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
60%
Box shareContext
—
8%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
12.00
Shots allowedContext
—
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
5.00
BlocksContext
—
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
50%
Save rateContext
—
65%
PossessionIn forecast
—
599
PassesContext
—
505
Accurate passesContext
—
84%
Pass accuracyContext
—
7.11
Team ratingContext
—
14.00
FoulsContext
—
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
—
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
—
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
29%
On target shareContext
34%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
—
59%
Box shareContext
—
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
—
11.80
Shots allowedContext
—
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.78
BlocksContext
—
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
56%
Save rateContext
63%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
—
510
PassesContext
—
430
Accurate passesContext
—
84%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.79
Team ratingContext
—
11.00
FoulsContext
—
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kauno Žalgiris
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dinamo Zagreb |
Kauno Žalgiris |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,300 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
44I. Filipović(G)
22M. Vinlöf
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
25Moris Valinčić
8M. Zajc
27J. Mišić
7L. Stojković
11A. Hoxha
9D. Beljo
21M. Lisica
Kauno Žalgiris
Confirmed XI
55T. Švedkauskas(G)
33M. Konatar
77R. Lekiatas
3A. Tolordava
45J. Moutachy
70F. Ourega
14V. Slivka
32F. Baldassarra
9L. Kreković
19Renan Oliveira
7A. Benchaib
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dinamo Zagreb
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kauno Žalgiris
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Dinamo Zagreb · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Kauno Žalgiris · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 2 | 0 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | — | |
| Failed to score | 30% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 10.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 12.00 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | Kauno Žalgiris | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.33 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.90 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 4.32
Red cards0.11league 0.25
Cards 5+39%league 43%
Fouls22.2league 25.9
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins45%league 50%
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
Kauno ŽalgirisNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dinamo Zagreb2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Kauno Žalgiris4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Kauno Žalgiris10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.