Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Elche had 6 days of rest, Alaves 6.8 and had to travel 537 km.
Away travel537 kmRest days6 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche43%
Draw27%
Alaves30%
Elche43%
Draw27%
Alaves30%
Elche42%
Draw27%
Alaves31%
Elche36%
Draw27%
Alaves37%
Elche43%
Draw26%
Alaves31%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 38
Team strength
Elche
Alaves
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
48
51
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheAlaves
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
85%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.59
ShotsContext
12.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
37%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
68%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.03
Shots allowedContext
12.24
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.03
3.82
BlocksContext
4.03
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
66%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
497
PassesContext
416
427
Accurate passesContext
337
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.71
FoulsContext
14.68
14.12
Fouls sufferedContext
13.47
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
13.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
41%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
73%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.60
BlocksContext
4.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
64%
Save rateContext
57%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
473
PassesContext
383
400
Accurate passesContext
310
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.30
FoulsContext
14.30
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,048 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Alaves
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel537 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,048 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
15Tete Morente
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
7Ángel Pérez
18Jon Guridi
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
22I. Diabate
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alaves-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.82points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-7-2
- Scored
- 1.65
- Conceded
- 1.06
Alaves · Away
0.71points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-11
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.76
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 38 of 99 · 1.15 per game | 33 of 99 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Elche wins0 draws3 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 5 Oct 2025Alaves3–1Elche
- 5 Feb 2022Elche3–1Alaves
- 26 Oct 2021Alaves1–0Elche
- 11 May 2021Elche0–2Alaves
- 18 Oct 2020Alaves0–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.74 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 53% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 65% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 29% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Elche | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.06 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 15/34 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 12/34 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 8/34 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.59 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 25/34 | 71% 24/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 16/34 | 50% 17/34 | |
| Elche | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.90 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.30 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.39league 4.27
Red cards0.39league 0.27
Cards 5+71%league 47%
Fouls24.4league 24.5
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins42%league 49%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
Alaves4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W23 Apr 25H · Real Sociedad1–04
- L14 May 24A · Real Madrid0–51
- D18 Feb 24A · Real Betis0–02
- L12 Nov 23A · Barcelona1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche34 games · scored 45 · conceded 53
6
11
0-15
6
5
16-30
5
7
31-45
8
5
46-60
10
7
61-75
10
18
76-90
Alaves34 games · scored 40 · conceded 53
8
6
0-15
3
9
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
11
46-60
8
8
61-75
10
15
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 19 · conceded 23
4
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
