Elche vs Barcelona – 23 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 23 · 20:30 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 9th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–5Full time

Barcelona

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche had 6 days of rest, Barcelona 92 and had to travel 425 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel425 kmRest days6 · 92Matches / 14d1 · 0

Elche17%

Draw21%

Barcelona62%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.04

Elche14%

Draw19%

Barcelona67%

Expected goals 0.84 – 2.12

Elche17%

Draw20%

Barcelona63%

Expected goals 0.95 – 2.05

Elche13%

Draw18%

Barcelona70%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.28

Elche18%

Draw22%

Barcelona60%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.87

Over 2.5 58% Both score 54% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

27°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 79%

Heat stress

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.55
Matches 22

Team strength

Elche

Barcelona

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

39 AttackIn forecast 97

51 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Barcelona

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.80 ShotsContext 12.60

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

38% On target shareContext 43%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

69% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.50 Shots allowedContext 9.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

2.80 BlocksContext 2.20

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

67% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 69%

457 PassesContext 649

387 Accurate passesContext 590

85% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.01

13.60 FoulsContext 9.40

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche D

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,722 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

D17 AugA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts

Barcelona

Rest92 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel425 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Aug	92La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	425 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,722 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Dituro(G)

11Germán Valera 23Víctor Chust 5F. Redondo 22D. Affengruber 2Buba Sangaré

29Ali Houary 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar 20Tete Morente

14Fer Niño

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Joan García(G)

36Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 15A. Christensen 24Eric García

6Gavi 22Marc Bernal

14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal

11Raphinha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.5 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Barcelona-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home No home games yet this season.

Barcelona · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Elche wins0 draws8 Barcelona wins

Goals per game0.63 – 2.88 Over 2.588% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

31 Jan 2026Elche1–3Barcelona
2 Nov 2025Barcelona3–1Elche
1 Apr 2023Elche0–4Barcelona
17 Sep 2022Barcelona3–0Elche
6 Mar 2022Elche1–2Barcelona
18 Dec 2021Barcelona3–2Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	—
Conceded per game	1.00	—
Match goals	2.00	—	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	0%	—	58%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	100%	—	54%
Clean sheets	0%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

	Elche	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.40	2.60	3.00
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	—
Corners conceded	2.00	—
Match total	8.00	—	9.55
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	—
Cards
Cards	2.00	—
Opponent cards	2.00	—
Match total	4.00	—	5.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	—

	Elche	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.30
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	9.44	9.80	9.55
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	2.00
Match total	5.00	3.90	5.82
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.86league 5.31

Red cards0.45league 0.31

Cards 5+59%league 69%

Fouls25.4league 28.1

Penalties0.55league 0.46

Home wins36%league 46%

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

Barcelona1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W7 Feb 26H · Mallorca3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.