Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 41). Elche usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Elche had 5 days of rest, Getafe 3.9 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days5 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche38%
Draw29%
Getafe33%
Elche37%
Draw27%
Getafe36%
Elche37%
Draw29%
Getafe33%
Elche31%
Draw29%
Getafe40%
Elche37%
Draw28%
Getafe35%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 41
Team strength
Elche
Getafe
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
27
51
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheGetafe
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
86%
Scored inContext
56%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.69
ShotsContext
8.97
3.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
30%
7.61
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
68%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.75
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.58
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.75
BlocksContext
2.48
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
66%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
496
PassesContext
280
427
Accurate passesContext
194
86%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.75
FoulsContext
14.00
14.11
Fouls sufferedContext
14.03
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
3.03
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
90%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
8.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
74%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.30
BlocksContext
2.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
62%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
468
PassesContext
257
400
Accurate passesContext
171
86%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.70
FoulsContext
15.20
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel346 km764 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 946 km | 764 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
12Gonzalo Villar
8Marc Aguado
19G. Diangana
15Tete Morente
20Á. Rodríguez
9André Silva
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
12A. Nyom
8M. Arambarri
46Damián Cáceres
5Luis Milla
10M. Satriano
6Mario Martín
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Getafe+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.78points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-8-2
- Scored
- 1.61
- Conceded
- 1.06
Getafe · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-8
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 39 of 105 · 1.11 per game | 45 of 105 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Elche wins2 draws3 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.14
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 28 Nov 2025Getafe1–0Elche
- 20 May 2023Getafe1–1Elche
- 31 Oct 2022Elche0–1Getafe
- 22 May 2022Elche3–1Getafe
- 13 Sep 2021Getafe0–1Elche
- 21 Mar 2021Getafe1–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 1.89 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 28% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 6% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 31% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 44% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Elche | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 8.77 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 16/36 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 13/36 | 33% 12/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 8/36 | 25% 9/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 5.67 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 27/36 | 81% 29/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 18/36 | 67% 24/36 | |
| Elche | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 6.80 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 4.29
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+39%league 47%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins37%league 48%
Elche2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 26A · Villarreal1–21
- D18 Aug 25H · Real Betis1–11
Getafe4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L2 May 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–13
- L26 May 24H · Mallorca1–20
- D21 Apr 24H · Real Sociedad1–10
- W29 Jan 24H · Granada CF2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche36 games · scored 47 · conceded 56
6
12
0-15
6
5
16-30
6
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
11
8
61-75
10
18
76-90
Getafe36 games · scored 31 · conceded 37
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
8
8
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
8
61-75
4
10
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
