Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Osasuna. Elche had 6 days of rest, Osasuna 7 and had to travel 513 km.
Away travel513 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche30%
Draw26%
Osasuna45%
Elche33%
Draw27%
Osasuna40%
Elche30%
Draw26%
Osasuna44%
Elche23%
Draw24%
Osasuna53%
Elche29%
Draw25%
Osasuna46%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 49
Team strength
Elche
Osasuna
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
39
AttackIn forecast
50
51
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheOsasuna
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
87%
Scored inContext
65%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.43
ShotsContext
10.91
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
66%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.93
14.65
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.96
BlocksContext
3.35
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
68%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
509
PassesContext
371
440
Accurate passesContext
296
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.43
FoulsContext
12.78
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.09
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
12.30
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
66%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.29
17.30
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.40
BlocksContext
3.13
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
492
PassesContext
348
421
Accurate passesContext
274
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.20
FoulsContext
13.30
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel513 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 513 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,143 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
21L. Pétrot
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
24Lucas Cepeda
15Tete Morente
20Á. Rodríguez
9André Silva
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
6Lucas Torró
10Aimar Oroz
21Víctor Muñoz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Osasuna+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.08
Osasuna · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-8
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game | 28 of 66 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Elche wins5 draws2 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 25 Sep 2025Osasuna1–1Elche
- 8 Apr 2023Osasuna2–1Elche
- 22 Jan 2023Elche1–1Osasuna
- 1 May 2022Elche1–1Osasuna
- 29 Nov 2021Osasuna1–1Elche
- 18 Apr 2021Osasuna2–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 2.43 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 48% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 35% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Elche | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.35 | 3.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.65 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 10/23 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 7/23 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 4/23 | 5% 1/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 4.65 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 18/23 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Elche | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.33 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.00 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 4.16
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 45%
Fouls24.6league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins51%league 47%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 May 24A · Athletic Club2–24
- W21 Jan 24H · Getafe3–25
- L29 Oct 23A · Real Betis1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche23 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
5
8
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
14
76-90
Osasuna22 games · scored 28 · conceded 28
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
9
61-75
10
5
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
