Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 39). Elche had 5.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 6.1 and had to travel 572 km.
Away travel572 kmRest days5.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Elche37%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad35%
Elche36%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad37%
Elche36%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad36%
Elche30%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad43%
Elche37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad36%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 28
Team strength
Elche
Real Sociedad
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
39
AttackIn forecast
62
51
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheReal Sociedad
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
82%
Scored inContext
82%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.64
ShotsContext
13.09
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.55
Shots in the boxContext
8.55
67%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.25
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.09
3.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.73
3.64
BlocksContext
3.89
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
63%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
524
PassesContext
428
457
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.73
FoulsContext
15.82
14.91
Fouls sufferedContext
10.36
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.00
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
69%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.43
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.60
BlocksContext
3.25
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
64%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
508
PassesContext
438
442
Accurate passesContext
359
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.70
FoulsContext
16.50
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,685 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel572 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 572 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,685 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
3Adrià Pedrosa
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
15Alvaro Núñez
8Marc Aguado
10Rafa Mir
30Rodrigo Mendoza
14Aleix Febas
17Josan
20Á. Rodríguez
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
23Brais Méndez
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.40
Real Sociedad · Away
0.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Elche wins0 draws6 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.17 – 1.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets0% · 83%
- 19 Mar 2023Real Sociedad2–0Elche
- 27 Aug 2022Elche0–1Real Sociedad
- 10 Apr 2022Elche1–2Real Sociedad
- 26 Sep 2021Real Sociedad1–0Elche
- 7 May 2021Real Sociedad2–0Elche
- 26 Sep 2020Elche0–3Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.64 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 55% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 73% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Elche | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.36 | 6.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 4.45 | |
| Match total | 7.91 | 11.27 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.27 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Elche | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.90 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.40 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.61league 3.99
Red cards0.29league 0.26
Cards 5+64%league 44%
Fouls27.3league 24.7
Penalties0.29league 0.35
Home wins32%league 48%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D14 Apr 24H · Almeria2–23
- L10 Feb 24H · Osasuna0–10
- W11 Nov 23A · Almeria3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche11 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Real Sociedad11 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
