Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 41). Elche had 10.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 4 and had to travel 572 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel572 kmRest days10.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Elche39%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad37%
Elche37%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad36%
Elche38%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad37%
Elche31%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad45%
Elche38%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad37%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
Heat stress
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 61%
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 47
Team strength
Elche
Real Sociedad
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
39
AttackIn forecast
62
51
DefenceIn forecast
48
31
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheReal Sociedad
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
2.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
67%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
42%
On target shareContext
40%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
62%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.67
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
2.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
44%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
545
PassesContext
505
466
Accurate passesContext
434
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.40
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.67
FoulsContext
13.50
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
37%
On target shareContext
41%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
65%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
3.33
9.60
Shots allowedContext
17.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.00
BlocksContext
4.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
53%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
485
PassesContext
467
413
Accurate passesContext
396
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.50
FoulsContext
13.60
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
DLL
Rest10.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Real Sociedad
LLWD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel572 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 46 · 4 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.1La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 572 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,269 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
2Buba Sangaré
11Germán Valera
12Gonzalo Villar
47J. Morcillo
10F. Buonanotte
20Tete Morente
14Fer Niño
9E. Ponce
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
13Unai Marrero(G)
17Sergio Gómez
19M. Sarr
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
21Y. Herrera
12Job Ochieng
10Mikel Oyarzabal
24L. Sučić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Real Sociedad · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Elche wins1 draws7 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.38 – 1.88
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets0% · 63%
- 7 Feb 2026Real Sociedad3–1Elche
- 7 Nov 2025Elche1–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Mar 2023Real Sociedad2–0Elche
- 27 Aug 2022Elche0–1Real Sociedad
- 10 Apr 2022Elche1–2Real Sociedad
- 26 Sep 2021Real Sociedad1–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.25 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Elche | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.00 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 5.75 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Elche | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 8.90 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 4.30
Red cards0.26league 0.25
Cards 5+45%league 48%
Fouls23.1league 24.9
Penalties0.21league 0.33
Home wins40%league 50%
Elche2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D10 Jan 26A · Valencia1–13
- L5 Oct 25A · Alaves1–32
Real Sociedad6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L20 Mar 26A · Villarreal1–32
- L12 Dec 25H · Girona1–21
- W18 May 25H · Girona3–21
- W4 May 24H · Las Palmas2–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Sevilla2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche3 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Real Sociedad4 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
