Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Elche had 9 days of rest, Sevilla 7 and had to travel 473 km.
Away travel473 kmRest days9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Elche44%
Draw27%
Sevilla29%
Elche44%
Draw27%
Sevilla30%
Elche44%
Draw27%
Sevilla29%
Elche37%
Draw27%
Sevilla36%
Elche44%
Draw27%
Sevilla29%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 42
Team strength
Elche
Sevilla
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
39
AttackIn forecast
48
51
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheSevilla
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
84%
Scored inContext
74%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.74
ShotsContext
10.68
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
66%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
3.57
12.89
Shots allowedContext
10.37
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.37
BlocksContext
3.50
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.47
71%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
525
PassesContext
424
458
Accurate passesContext
350
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.68
FoulsContext
14.95
13.84
Fouls sufferedContext
13.37
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
3.05
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.60
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
9.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.10
BlocksContext
2.43
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
64%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
520
PassesContext
442
452
Accurate passesContext
365
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.10
FoulsContext
14.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel473 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 473 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 275 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
17Josan
16Martim Neto
19G. Diangana
20Á. Rodríguez
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
2J. Carmona Navarro
36Oso
19B. Mendy
20M. Sow
16Juanlu Sánchez
14Peque Fernández
18L. Agoumé
7Isaac Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sevilla-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-1
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.80
Sevilla · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Elche wins3 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.71
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets0% · 43%
- 12 Sep 2025Sevilla2–2Elche
- 24 May 2023Elche1–1Sevilla
- 28 Jan 2023Sevilla3–0Elche
- 11 Feb 2022Sevilla2–0Elche
- 28 Aug 2021Elche1–1Sevilla
- 17 Mar 2021Sevilla2–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.84 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 53% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Elche | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.40 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.26 | 5.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.26 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 7.52 | 9.63 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 37% 7/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 4/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 3/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 3.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 5.42 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 14/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Elche | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.10 | 9.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.70 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.19
Red cards0.21league 0.29
Cards 5+33%league 47%
Fouls21.9league 24.5
Penalties0.29league 0.35
Home wins50%league 47%
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Oct 25A · Espanyol0–12
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Mar 24A · Almeria2–21
- D21 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche19 games · scored 25 · conceded 24
3
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
11
76-90
Sevilla19 games · scored 24 · conceded 30
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
11
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
5
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
