Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Athletic Club. Espanyol had 4.1 days of rest, Athletic Club 3.1 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Espanyol33%
Draw29%
Athletic Club38%
Espanyol35%
Draw27%
Athletic Club38%
Espanyol32%
Draw29%
Athletic Club39%
Espanyol26%
Draw28%
Athletic Club45%
Espanyol34%
Draw27%
Athletic Club39%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 36
Team strength
Espanyol
Athletic Club
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
36
AttackIn forecast
51
51
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolAthletic Club
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.51
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
74%
Scored inContext
66%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.34
ShotsContext
13.26
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.53
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.79
Shots in the boxContext
9.03
62%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.19
13.09
Shots allowedContext
9.23
5.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.56
BlocksContext
2.32
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
70%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
341
PassesContext
408
269
Accurate passesContext
330
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.86
FoulsContext
12.69
12.66
Fouls sufferedContext
10.66
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.20
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
55%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.50
Shots allowedContext
9.50
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.60
BlocksContext
2.22
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
61%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
306
PassesContext
402
233
Accurate passesContext
326
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.70
16.30
FoulsContext
12.50
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Athletic Club
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel463 km101 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,641 km | 101 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
20Antoniu Roca
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
2Rubén Sánchez
9R. Fernández Jaén
8Edu Expósito
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
19Adama Boiro
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
30Alejandro Rego Mora
16Ruíz de Galarreta
23Robert Navarro
20Unai Gómez
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Athletic Club-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.29points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-7
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.35
Athletic Club · Away
0.88points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-10
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Levante | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Real Betis | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game | 44 of 102 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Espanyol wins2 draws3 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 22 Dec 2025Athletic Club1–2Espanyol
- 16 Feb 2025Espanyol1–1Athletic Club
- 19 Oct 2024Athletic Club4–1Espanyol
- 8 Apr 2023Espanyol1–2Athletic Club
- 4 Sep 2022Athletic Club0–1Espanyol
- 7 Feb 2022Athletic Club2–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.51 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 49% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 51% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 34% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Espanyol | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.66 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 9.46 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 17/34 | 66% 23/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 14/34 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 12/34 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 2.03 | |
| Match total | 5.08 | 4.29 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 25/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 22/35 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Espanyol | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.30 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 3.80 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 4.30
Red cards0.11league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 48%
Fouls24.1league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins44%league 48%
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Sep 25A · Girona0–01
- L18 May 25A · Osasuna0–21
Athletic Club2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L24 Jan 26A · Sevilla1–21
- W17 Aug 25H · Sevilla3–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol35 games · scored 38 · conceded 53
5
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
12
31-45
12
10
46-60
4
9
61-75
10
13
76-90
Athletic Club34 games · scored 40 · conceded 49
3
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
9
61-75
13
12
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
