Espanyol
Attack−19%
Defense risk+29%
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 45). Espanyol were without M. Dmitrović. Atletico Madrid were without Koke. Espanyol had 7.7 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 3.7 and had to travel 497 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel497 kmRest days7.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Espanyol21%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid55%
Espanyol22%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid53%
Espanyol22%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid54%
Espanyol16%
Draw21%
Atletico Madrid63%
Espanyol22%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid56%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
Warm
25°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 62%
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 146
Team strength
Espanyol
Atletico Madrid
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
36
AttackIn forecast
82
51
DefenceIn forecast
87
34
Form indexContext
97
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack+14%
Defense risk−16%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
EspanyolAtletico Madrid
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
100%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
13.00
ShotsContext
17.38
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
30%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
57%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.38
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.86
BlocksContext
2.88
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
74%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
389
PassesContext
580
318
Accurate passesContext
511
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.05
16.75
FoulsContext
12.50
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.80
ShotsContext
15.70
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
57%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
9.70
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.33
BlocksContext
2.80
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
70%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
376
PassesContext
573
305
Accurate passesContext
503
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.04
15.80
FoulsContext
12.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
DWLLD
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,523 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 34 · 5 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Atletico Madrid
WWWWW
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel497 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 97 · 15 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +7.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7La Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 3.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 497 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,523 km | 568 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez
17D. Hancko
21C. Romero
18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman
15J. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −9.4% · Defence line −15.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Dmitrović Starter 6.96 Def −15.5%
- ATT Kike García Rotation 6.70 Att −5.9%
- ATT Jofre Carreras Rotation 6.60 Att −3.5%
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −8.4% · Defence line −5.1% of weighted minutes
- MID Koke Starter 7.03 Att −8.4% Def −5.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Atletico Madrid · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Malaga | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Espanyol wins4 draws3 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 21 Feb 2026Atletico Madrid4–2Espanyol
- 17 Aug 2025Espanyol2–1Atletico Madrid
- 29 Mar 2025Espanyol1–1Atletico Madrid
- 28 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid0–0Espanyol
- 24 May 2023Espanyol3–3Atletico Madrid
- 6 Nov 2022Atletico Madrid1–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Espanyol | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 8.00 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 5.88 | 3.88 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 88% 7/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Espanyol | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.88 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 8.13 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.70 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 146 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.33
Red cards0.27league 0.29
Cards 5+60%league 54%
Fouls25.0league 24.8
Penalties0.32league 0.35
Home wins42%league 44%
Espanyol12 with this referee
Record3-3-6
Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds3
- L11 Apr 26A · Barcelona1–46
- L24 Jan 26A · Valencia2–35
- L8 Nov 25H · Villarreal0–20
- W15 Sep 25H · Mallorca3–23
- W4 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano4–02
Atletico Madrid10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D23 Aug 26H · Villarreal2–24
- W1 Nov 25H · Sevilla3–00
- W24 Sep 25H · Rayo Vallecano3–23
- W31 Aug 24A · Athletic Club1–01
- L3 Jan 24A · Girona3–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol8 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Atletico Madrid8 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
