Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celta Vigo. Espanyol had 4.7 days of rest, Celta Vigo 7.7 and had to travel 901 km.
Away travel901 kmRest days4.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Espanyol32%
Draw30%
Celta Vigo38%
Espanyol36%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo36%
Espanyol32%
Draw30%
Celta Vigo38%
Espanyol26%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo45%
Espanyol33%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo39%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 38
Team strength
Espanyol
Celta Vigo
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
36
AttackIn forecast
36
51
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolCelta Vigo
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
78%
Scored inContext
83%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.52
ShotsContext
10.39
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.18
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
64%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.65
11.83
Shots allowedContext
11.87
4.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.59
BlocksContext
3.41
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
78%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
351
PassesContext
487
280
Accurate passesContext
419
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.22
FoulsContext
11.35
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.87
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
32%
On target shareContext
42%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
63%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
3.56
BlocksContext
4.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
70%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
345
PassesContext
434
269
Accurate passesContext
366
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.60
FoulsContext
11.10
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km484 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel901 km937 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.7La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 901 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 484 km | 937 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
8Edu Expósito
10Pol Lozano
11Pere Milla
18C. Pickel
16C. Ngonge
9R. Fernández Jaén
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
8Fer López
16Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.33
Celta Vigo · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 0.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | L 2–4 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 31 of 66 · 1.41 per game | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Espanyol wins1 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Celta Vigo0–1Espanyol
- 12 Apr 2025Celta Vigo0–2Espanyol
- 30 Nov 2024Espanyol3–1Celta Vigo
- 18 Mar 2023Espanyol1–3Celta Vigo
- 13 Aug 2022Celta Vigo2–2Espanyol
- 10 Apr 2022Espanyol1–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.39 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 35% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Espanyol | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 4.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.74 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 9/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.61 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 4.48 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Espanyol | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.00 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 4.17
Red cards0.32league 0.27
Cards 5+63%league 45%
Fouls26.0league 24.6
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins47%league 47%
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Nov 25A · Alaves1–22
- L4 May 25H · Real Betis1–22
Celta Vigo2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L28 Sep 25A · Elche1–23
- L21 Oct 23H · Atletico Madrid0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol23 games · scored 27 · conceded 31
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
9
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
5
76-90
Celta Vigo22 games · scored 28 · conceded 25
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
5
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
