Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Espanyol were slight favourites.
Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). Espanyol had 3.1 days of rest, Elche 3 and had to travel 418 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel418 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Espanyol48%
Draw24%
Elche28%
Espanyol49%
Draw25%
Elche26%
Espanyol49%
Draw24%
Elche27%
Espanyol40%
Draw25%
Elche35%
Espanyol48%
Draw24%
Elche27%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
22°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 75%
Referee · SpainJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Espanyol
Elche
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
36
AttackIn forecast
39
51
DefenceIn forecast
51
35
Form indexContext
18
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolElche
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.67
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
32%
On target shareContext
41%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
55%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.40
BlocksContext
2.80
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
76%
Save rateContext
48%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
375
PassesContext
498
303
Accurate passesContext
430
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.55
17.67
FoulsContext
14.33
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.80
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
55%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
4.11
BlocksContext
2.44
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
55%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
362
PassesContext
469
285
Accurate passesContext
399
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.67
15.50
FoulsContext
14.90
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
LLDWL
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,691 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Elche
LLLDL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel418 km1,173 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Form 18 · 1 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 418 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,691 km | 1,173 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 22.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
14Unai Núñez
32J. A. Lopez
4Urko González
8Edu Expósito
15Bryan Zaragoza
28Javi Hernández
22Álex Calatrava
9R. Fernández Jaén
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
5F. Redondo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
47J. Morcillo
12Gonzalo Villar
11Germán Valera
14Fer Niño
21Lucas Cepeda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Elche+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Elche · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Espanyol wins3 draws1 Elche wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2026Elche2–2Espanyol
- 25 Oct 2025Espanyol1–0Elche
- 19 Feb 2023Elche0–1Espanyol
- 23 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Elche
- 10 Jan 2022Espanyol1–2Elche
- 23 Oct 2021Elche2–2Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Espanyol | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.17 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.33 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Espanyol | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.44 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.50 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban Spain · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.24
Red cards0.08league 0.25
Cards 5+50%league 51%
Fouls24.6league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins33%league 46%
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol6 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Elche6 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
