Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 43). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Espanyol had 6 days of rest, Real Madrid 9 and had to travel 497 km.
Away travel497 kmRest days6 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Espanyol17%
Draw22%
Real Madrid62%
Espanyol16%
Draw22%
Real Madrid62%
Espanyol15%
Draw21%
Real Madrid64%
Espanyol12%
Draw19%
Real Madrid69%
Espanyol17%
Draw21%
Real Madrid62%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 54
Team strength
Espanyol
Real Madrid
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
36
AttackIn forecast
89
51
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolReal Madrid
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
76%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.33
ShotsContext
17.64
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.82
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.84
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
63%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.42
OffsidesContext
2.35
12.79
Shots allowedContext
10.21
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.31
3.41
BlocksContext
3.27
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
71%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
345
PassesContext
580
273
Accurate passesContext
521
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.11
13.61
FoulsContext
10.21
12.55
Fouls sufferedContext
13.06
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
16.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.40
29%
On target shareContext
46%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
59%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.40
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
66%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
332
PassesContext
495
259
Accurate passesContext
439
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.50
FoulsContext
9.80
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel497 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 497 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 995 km | 781 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
8Edu Expósito
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
14Ramon Terrats
2Rubén Sánchez
9R. Fernández Jaén
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
23F. Mendy
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
12T. Alexander-Arnold
14A. Tchouaméni
45Thiago Pitarch
21Brahim Díaz
5J. Bellingham
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Real Madrid-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.31
Real Madrid · Away
1.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-3
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 5–1 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 39 of 96 · 1.22 per game | 71 of 96 · 2.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Espanyol wins0 draws5 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.86 – 2.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 20 Sep 2025Real Madrid2–0Espanyol
- 1 Feb 2025Espanyol1–0Real Madrid
- 21 Sep 2024Real Madrid4–1Espanyol
- 11 Mar 2023Real Madrid3–1Espanyol
- 28 Aug 2022Espanyol1–3Real Madrid
- 30 Apr 2022Real Madrid4–0Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 61% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 61% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 9% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Espanyol | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 10.16 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 73% 22/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 13/32 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 11/32 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.55 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.40 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 23/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 20/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Espanyol | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 11.80 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.10 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 4.27
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+52%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.44league 0.36
Home wins44%league 49%
Espanyol1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Dec 25A · Getafe1–01
Real Madrid7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W14 Mar 26H · Elche4–11
- W3 Dec 25A · Athletic Club3–00
- W13 Sep 25A · Real Sociedad2–12
- W4 May 25H · Celta Vigo3–22
- D2 Mar 24A · Valencia2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol33 games · scored 37 · conceded 49
5
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
12
31-45
11
9
46-60
4
8
61-75
10
11
76-90
Real Madrid33 games · scored 68 · conceded 31
5
1
0-15
10
3
16-30
14
7
31-45
13
6
46-60
9
6
61-75
17
8
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
