Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Espanyol had 3.1 days of rest, Valencia 2.9 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days3.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Espanyol39%
Draw29%
Valencia32%
Espanyol41%
Draw27%
Valencia32%
Espanyol39%
Draw29%
Valencia32%
Espanyol32%
Draw29%
Valencia39%
Espanyol41%
Draw27%
Valencia32%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Espanyol
Valencia
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
36
AttackIn forecast
39
51
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolValencia
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.40
ShotsContext
8.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
34%
On target shareContext
31%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
60%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.40
Shots allowedContext
15.20
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.20
BlocksContext
4.20
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
76%
Save rateContext
74%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
333
PassesContext
354
264
Accurate passesContext
281
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.20
FoulsContext
11.00
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.80
ShotsContext
8.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
34%
On target shareContext
36%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.30
BlocksContext
3.40
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
75%
Save rateContext
77%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
333
PassesContext
409
264
Accurate passesContext
333
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.00
FoulsContext
11.00
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Valencia
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel295 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 995 km | 605 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
8Edu Expósito
10Pol Lozano
7Javi Puado
18C. Pickel
24T. Dolan
19Kike García
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
4M. Diakhaby
5César Tárrega
20D. Foulquier
16Diego López
18Pepelu
22B. Santamaría
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
7A. Danjuma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Valencia+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Valencia · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Espanyol wins5 draws0 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Apr 2025Valencia1–1Espanyol
- 18 Dec 2024Espanyol1–1Valencia
- 28 May 2023Valencia2–2Espanyol
- 2 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Valencia
- 14 May 2022Espanyol1–1Valencia
- 31 Dec 2021Valencia1–2Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Espanyol | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 11.20 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.80 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Espanyol | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.30 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 3.86
Red cards0.50league 0.29
Cards 5+100%league 39%
Fouls26.5league 24.4
Penalties0.00league 0.33
Home wins50%league 49%
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
ValenciaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol5 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
Valencia5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
