Estac Troyes vs Paris FC – 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Stade de l’Aube, Troyes

Estac Troyes

0–0Full time

Paris FC

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris FC were slight favourites.

Paris FC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris FC. Estac Troyes had ? days of rest, Paris FC 97 and had to travel 142 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel142 kmRest days? · 97Matches / 14d0 · 0

Estac Troyes29%

Draw25%

Paris FC46%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.57

Estac Troyes31%

Draw26%

Paris FC43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.47

Estac Troyes28%

Draw25%

Paris FC47%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.57

Estac Troyes23%

Draw23%

Paris FC54%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.76

Estac Troyes29%

Draw25%

Paris FC46%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.59

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Troyes)

21°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 37%

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 67

Team strength

Estac Troyes

Paris FC

13 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

12 AttackIn forecast 46

19 DefenceIn forecast 38

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estac Troyes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estac Troyes

Paris FC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def 1.40

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

— Goals minus xGContext +0.50

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.70 ShotsContext 12.10

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 37%

4.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

61% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 16%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.75

21.10 Shots allowedContext 12.20

7.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.80 BlocksContext 3.00

5.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

72% Save rateContext 78%

41% PossessionIn forecast 44%

372 PassesContext 386

299 Accurate passesContext 317

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.83

9.80 FoulsContext 9.20

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estac Troyes

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris FC

Rest97 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel142 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estac Troyes	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	97Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estac Troyes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

33P. Beach(G)

3A. Ouzenadji 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 44Y. Titi

22H. Picard 8M. Diop 11I. Gomis

7K. Diawara 20R. Ripart 10M. Ifnaoui

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Trapp(G)

6Otávio 5M. Mbow 42D. Coppola 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 23R. Matondo

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estac Troyes Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris FC Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estac Troyes+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris FC-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Estac Troyes · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris FC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Estac Troyes	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Estac Troyes	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.90
Conceded per game	—	1.00
Match goals	—	2.90	2.75
Over 1.5	—	80%
Over 2.5	—	60%	52%
Over 3.5	—	40%
Both teams scored	—	70%	55%
Clean sheets	—	20%
Failed to score	—	20%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estac Troyes	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Estac Troyes	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	4.50
Corners conceded	8.40	5.60
Match total	11.60	10.10	9.00
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.60
Opponent cards	1.20	1.10
Match total	2.30	2.70	3.50
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 67 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.46league 2.50

Red cards0.28league 1.00

Cards 5+31%league 0%

Fouls26.2league 22.5

Penalties0.34league 2.00

Home wins37%league 100%

Estac Troyes3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L26 Feb 23A · Ajaccio1–22
D23 Oct 22H · Lorient2–22
L14 Aug 22H · Toulouse0–32

Paris FC2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

W3 May 26H · Stade Brestois 294–02
L23 Aug 25A · Marseille2–50

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.