Excelsior vs FC Volendam – 10 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 10 · 15:45 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 14th · 34 pts · 32 played DLDWW

First leg2–1 1–1Full time

FC Volendam 16th · 31 pts · 32 played LDLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Excelsior were clear favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Excelsior had 7.9 days of rest, FC Volendam 7.2 and had to travel 75 km.

Away travel75 kmRest days7.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Excelsior60%

Draw21%

FC Volendam18%

Expected goals 2.13 – 1.11

Excelsior49%

Draw26%

FC Volendam25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

Excelsior58%

Draw22%

FC Volendam20%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.11

Excelsior52%

Draw23%

FC Volendam24%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.24

Excelsior60%

Draw22%

FC Volendam19%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.08

Over 2.5 63% Both score 60% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 117

Team strength

Excelsior

FC Volendam

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

21 AttackIn forecast 14

18 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

FC Volendam

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

1.66 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

78% Scored inContext 63%

19% Clean sheetsContext 9%

12.03 ShotsContext 10.59

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.66

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 6.53

66% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.52 OffsidesContext 1.68

14.50 Shots allowedContext 18.16

5.59 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.19

4.00 BlocksContext 5.56

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63

70% Save rateContext 75%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

394 PassesContext 358

308 Accurate passesContext 284

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.78 FoulsContext 9.19

8.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.81

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

80% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.10 ShotsContext 11.20

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

34% On target shareContext 35%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

68% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.78 OffsidesContext 1.33

12.30 Shots allowedContext 18.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

3.00 BlocksContext 5.60

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

69% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

418 PassesContext 349

329 Accurate passesContext 266

79% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.00 FoulsContext 8.80

8.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

0.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Volendam

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel75 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	FC Volendam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May	7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	75 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	403 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 14L. Schouten 4C. Widell 3R. Meissen

23I. Yegoian 20L. Hartjes 10N. Naujoks

7E. Hansson 11G. de Regt 30D. Sanches Fernandes

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16R. Steur(G)

32Y. Leliendal 20N. Verschuren 3M. Amevor 5P. Ugwu

8G. Yah 4J. Bacuna

29B. Pauwels 21R. Mühren 77B. Ould-Chikh

99A. Descotte

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Volendam Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+2.0 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
FC Volendam-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-9
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.31

FC Volendam · Away 0.50points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-12
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	FC Volendam
Groningen	W 3–2 AL 0–2 H	W 3–2 HL 0–3 A
Utrecht	W 5–0 HL 1–4 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 HL 0–5 A	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Heracles	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
NAC Breda	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Ajax	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Twente	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Telstar	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Points	31 of 93 · 1.00 per game	31 of 93 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Excelsior wins0 draws1 FC Volendam wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

20 Sep 2025FC Volendam1–2Excelsior
29 Oct 2023FC Volendam3–1Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.03
Conceded per game	1.66	1.63
Match goals	2.88	2.66	3.24
Over 1.5	81%	84%
Over 2.5	63%	59%	63%
Over 3.5	28%	19%
Both teams scored	63%	56%	60%
Clean sheets	19%	9%
Failed to score	22%	38%
Games	32	32

	Excelsior	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	3.10	2.40	3.24
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	3.97
Corners conceded	5.34	6.53
Match total	9.47	10.50	10.29
Over 8.5	59% 19/32	73% 22/30
Over 9.5	41% 13/32	63% 19/30
Over 10.5	31% 10/32	50% 15/30
Cards
Cards	1.34	1.50
Opponent cards	1.38	1.88
Match total	2.72	3.38	3.31
Over 3.5	28% 9/32	41% 13/32
Over 4.5	19% 6/32	28% 9/32

	Excelsior	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.20
Corners conceded	5.30	6.30
Match total	9.60	10.50	10.29
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	0.70	1.50
Opponent cards	1.30	1.20
Match total	2.00	2.70	3.31
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.23league 3.13

Red cards0.13league 0.18

Cards 5+26%league 26%

Fouls21.4league 21.2

Penalties0.32league 0.21

Home wins44%league 44%

Excelsior2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L7 Mar 26H · Heerenveen1–21
L9 Aug 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–51

FC Volendam4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L14 Mar 26H · Fortuna Sittard1–21
L13 Dec 25A · Groningen0–32
W25 Oct 25H · Heracles3–00
D18 Feb 24A · Vitesse1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.