Excelsior vs Feyenoord – 16 Aug 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Aug 16 · 17:45 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–2Full time

Feyenoord 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were clear favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 16). Excelsior had 7.1 days of rest, Feyenoord 7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Excelsior17%

Draw22%

Feyenoord61%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.01

Excelsior17%

Draw23%

Feyenoord60%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.91

Excelsior17%

Draw22%

Feyenoord61%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.01

Excelsior13%

Draw19%

Feyenoord68%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.25

Excelsior17%

Draw23%

Feyenoord60%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.91

Over 2.5 57% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 35

Team strength

Excelsior

Feyenoord

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

21 AttackIn forecast 76

18 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Feyenoord

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

— xGVia Att/Def 1.69

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

— Goals minus xGContext +0.41

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.80 ShotsContext 14.20

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.56

46% On target shareContext 35%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

71% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 15%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.67

16.10 Shots allowedContext 11.40

6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

4.33 BlocksContext 3.10

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

61% Save rateContext 70%

42% PossessionIn forecast 50%

368 PassesContext 391

273 Accurate passesContext 317

74% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.10

8.50 FoulsContext 9.60

8.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km189 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	189 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16C. Raatsie(G)

12A. Zagré 5S. Henderikx 4C. Widell 17Nolan Martens

10N. Naujoks 6A. Carlén

11G. de Regt 21C. Booth 30D. Sanches Fernandes

29M. van Duinen

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 30M. Lotomba

8Q. Timber 6I. Hwang

16L. Sauer 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Feyenoord+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home No home games yet this season.

Feyenoord · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Excelsior wins0 draws1 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game2.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

25 Nov 2023Excelsior2–4Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	5.00	0.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.98
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Excelsior	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	5.00	0.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.98
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	7.00	4.00
Match total	9.00	7.00	10.22
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	2.78
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Excelsior	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	3.50
Corners conceded	7.20	4.90
Match total	10.80	8.40	10.22
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.30	1.50
Match total	2.70	2.90	2.78
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.89league 3.00

Red cards0.23league 0.10

Cards 5+26%league 30%

Fouls21.4league 21.9

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins46%league 70%

Excelsior1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D19 Aug 23H · Ajax2–20

Feyenoord5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Apr 25H · PEC Zwolle4–01
D15 Feb 25A · NAC Breda0–01
W2 Nov 24H · AZ Alkmaar3–20
D10 Aug 24H · Willem II1–12
L29 Oct 23A · Twente1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.