Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Excelsior had 6.8 days of rest, Heracles 6.2 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days6.8 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Excelsior46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
Excelsior46%
Draw27%
Heracles28%
Excelsior46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
Excelsior39%
Draw27%
Heracles34%
Excelsior46%
Draw26%
Heracles28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 25
Team strength
Excelsior
Heracles
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
21
AttackIn forecast
7
18
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorHeracles
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.91
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
73%
Scored inContext
55%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
12.55
ShotsContext
10.91
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
6.45
60%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.91
Shots allowedContext
18.55
7.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.36
4.82
BlocksContext
6.00
4.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.27
69%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
364
PassesContext
339
282
Accurate passesContext
263
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.36
FoulsContext
11.91
8.91
Fouls sufferedContext
10.45
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.14
31%
On target shareContext
33%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
58%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.00
Shots allowedContext
18.50
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.40
5.20
BlocksContext
5.90
4.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
72%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
372
PassesContext
336
290
Accurate passesContext
259
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.30
FoulsContext
11.50
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km364 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel157 km218 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 364 km | 218 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
17Nolan Martens
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
23I. Yegoian
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
9S. Włodarczyk
30D. Sanches Fernandes
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
73W. Ould-Chikh
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
19L. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Heracles-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-6
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | L 0–4 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–7 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Excelsior wins0 draws1 Heracles wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Sep 2023Heracles3–1Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 2.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 4.27 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 91% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Excelsior | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 4.30 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 3.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 9.91 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.27 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 2.82 | 3.64 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 4/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Excelsior | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.10 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.16league 3.36
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+28%league 33%
Fouls21.5league 22.1
Penalties0.20league 0.29
Home wins32%league 48%
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Feb 24H · Twente0–31
Heracles3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L19 Oct 25H · Feyenoord0–71
- L29 Aug 25A · Groningen0–41
- W12 Jan 24A · Waalwijk2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior11 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
5
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Heracles11 games · scored 15 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
9
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 15 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
