Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 16). Excelsior had 14.6 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 13.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days14.6 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Excelsior36%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Excelsior30%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam43%
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 36
Team strength
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
32
18
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.75
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.75
ShotsContext
10.75
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
41%
On target shareContext
37%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
60%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
18.75
Shots allowedContext
21.25
9.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.50
5.25
BlocksContext
5.25
5.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
64%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
338
PassesContext
329
254
Accurate passesContext
251
75%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.75
FoulsContext
6.00
9.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
0.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
2.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
43%
On target shareContext
38%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
64%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.86
15.10
Shots allowedContext
20.40
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.10
BlocksContext
5.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
61%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
380
PassesContext
351
288
Accurate passesContext
277
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.10
FoulsContext
8.50
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest14.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
9S. Włodarczyk
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4T. Quintero
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8P. Clement
6J. Kitolano
10J. Toornstra
11S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
7M. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Excelsior wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam4–2Excelsior
- 1 Oct 2023Excelsior2–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.25 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.25 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 8.75 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 11.75 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.38 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.30 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.14league 3.44
Red cards0.08league 0.21
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls19.6league 22.7
Penalties0.28league 0.18
Home wins50%league 51%
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Oct 23H · Sparta Rotterdam2–14
Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Sep 24A · Waalwijk2–11
- L4 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle0–21
- L1 Oct 23A · Excelsior1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior4 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam4 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
