Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Excelsior had 13.9 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days13.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Excelsior51%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Excelsior46%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam29%
Excelsior52%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Excelsior43%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam32%
Excelsior51%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 108
Team strength
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
32
18
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.33
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
48%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
69%
Box shareContext
75%
22%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.00
BlocksContext
5.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
80%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
428
PassesContext
383
347
Accurate passesContext
309
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
12.67
4.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.90
ShotsContext
13.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
36%
On target shareContext
30%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
61%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.20
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.90
BlocksContext
4.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
72%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
401
PassesContext
383
316
Accurate passesContext
312
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.00
FoulsContext
11.30
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
WL
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 3 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
20L. Hartjes
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
7Aymen Sliti
6D. van Vianen
8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1F. Bednarek(G)
6J. Baas
5B. Kuipers
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
7Robin van Cruijsen
8J. Toornstra
9Milan Zonneveld
11M. van Bergen
10S. Mito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Excelsior wins0 draws2 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.75 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 17 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam2–3Excelsior
- 14 Sep 2025Excelsior0–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam4–2Excelsior
- 1 Oct 2023Excelsior2–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.67 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 13.00 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 7.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.20 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 2.28
Red cards0.12league 0.08
Cards 5+42%league 12%
Fouls23.0league 20.6
Penalties0.28league 0.08
Home wins48%league 32%
Excelsior5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L15 Mar 26A · Feyenoord1–21
- W6 Feb 26A · NAC Breda2–02
- W29 Nov 25H · NAC Breda1–04
- L17 Feb 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–42
- L25 Nov 23H · Feyenoord2–41
Sparta Rotterdam9 with this referee
Record1-3-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L27 Sep 25A · Heracles0–34
- L31 Aug 25H · Feyenoord0–42
- L18 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- D7 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–12
- L8 Feb 25A · Feyenoord0–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam3 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
