Excelsior vs Telstar – 17 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 17 · 19:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 14th · 19 pts · 17 played WWLWL

First leg2–2 2–2Full time

Telstar 15th · 15 pts · 18 played LDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Excelsior. Excelsior had 7 days of rest, Telstar 6.2 and had to travel 61 km.

Away travel61 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Excelsior37%

Draw27%

Telstar36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.33

Excelsior38%

Draw27%

Telstar35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Excelsior38%

Draw27%

Telstar35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Excelsior30%

Draw27%

Telstar43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.49

Excelsior37%

Draw27%

Telstar36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis

Cards per match 2.4
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 47

Team strength

Excelsior

Telstar

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

21 AttackIn forecast 24

18 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Telstar

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

76% Scored inContext 72%

18% Clean sheetsContext 17%

11.59 ShotsContext 12.61

4.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.59

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.53 Shots in the boxContext 8.18

63% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.27 OffsidesContext 2.40

16.29 Shots allowedContext 15.50

6.47 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

4.53 BlocksContext 4.76

4.41 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

68% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

373 PassesContext 354

290 Accurate passesContext 276

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.18 FoulsContext 10.83

8.94 Fouls sufferedContext 10.61

1.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 17 and 18 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 11.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

36% On target shareContext 30%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

64% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.44

15.10 Shots allowedContext 15.70

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

4.20 BlocksContext 4.89

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

66% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

386 PassesContext 352

303 Accurate passesContext 270

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.70 FoulsContext 10.00

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km174 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	174 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	7.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes 23I. Yegoian

7E. Hansson 10N. Naujoks 30D. Sanches Fernandes

33Jerolldino Bergraaf

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 21D. Koswal 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 4G. Offerhaus 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

9Milan Zonneveld

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior-0.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Telstar+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 1.33points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-5
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.11

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-4
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Telstar
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
PEC Zwolle	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Groningen	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Ajax	W 2–1 A	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
Heracles	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 A	W 4–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 H
Heerenveen	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
FC Volendam	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Twente	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Utrecht	L 1–4 A	D 1–1 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–5 A	D 2–2 H
Points	18 of 48 · 1.13 per game	14 of 48 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Excelsior wins1 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

1 Nov 2025Telstar2–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.22
Conceded per game	1.88	1.67
Match goals	2.88	2.89	2.69
Over 1.5	76%	83%
Over 2.5	65%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	24%	39%
Both teams scored	59%	61%	55%
Clean sheets	18%	17%
Failed to score	24%	28%
Games	17	18

	Excelsior	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.50
Match goals	2.80	2.70	2.69
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.06	4.94
Corners conceded	5.18	6.35
Match total	9.24	11.29	10.20
Over 8.5	59% 10/17	82% 14/17
Over 9.5	35% 6/17	71% 12/17
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	65% 11/17
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.61
Opponent cards	1.41	1.78
Match total	3.06	3.39	3.56
Over 3.5	35% 6/17	39% 7/18
Over 4.5	29% 5/17	33% 6/18

	Excelsior	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.40
Corners conceded	5.50	6.70
Match total	9.80	11.10	10.20
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	3.30	3.90	3.56
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.32league 3.34

Red cards0.09league 0.22

Cards 5+13%league 31%

Fouls17.3league 21.6

Penalties0.26league 0.29

Home wins55%league 46%

Excelsior1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D2 Dec 23A · Waalwijk2–20

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.