Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eyüpspor
17th · 8 pts · 12 played
LWLLL
1–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 7 pts · 12 played
LLDLW
Our take
Eyüpspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Eyüpspor had 12.9 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 13.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days12.9 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eyüpspor48%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Eyüpspor48%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Eyüpspor40%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 10
Team strength
EyüpsporFatih Karagümrük
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
9
AttackIn forecast
13
10
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporFatih Karagümrük
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
33%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
10.58
ShotsContext
11.17
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.27
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.36
Shots in the boxContext
5.58
56%
Box shareContext
51%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.70
13.08
Shots allowedContext
14.42
4.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.55
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.18
77%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
379
PassesContext
359
310
Accurate passesContext
277
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.60
10.67
FoulsContext
14.00
15.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.42
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
20%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.90
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
33%
On target shareContext
27%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
56%
Box shareContext
55%
4%
ConversionContext
10%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.67
BlocksContext
3.22
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
80%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
376
PassesContext
366
307
Accurate passesContext
281
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.90
FoulsContext
14.40
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
5E. Ortakaya
6R. Yalçın
2Calegari
33T. Stepanenko
10K. Demirbay
9M. Thiam
8E. Akbaba
11S. Gürler
19U. Bozok
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
5M. Kranevitter
14Marius Tresor Doh
70Serginho
8B. Özcan
37João Camacho
19D. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.33
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | L 3–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 5 of 24 · 0.63 per game | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.92 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 8% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 42% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Eyüpspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.30 | 3.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.42 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.17 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 4.42 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Eyüpspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.70 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.56
Red cards0.20league 0.26
Cards 5+20%league 50%
Fouls26.5league 26.1
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins30%league 39%
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 25H · Kasimpasa2–01
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25A · Antalyaspor2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor12 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük12 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
4
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
