Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 19). Eyüpspor had 7 days of rest, Goztepe 7.9 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eyüpspor37%
Draw27%
Goztepe36%
Eyüpspor36%
Draw27%
Goztepe37%
Eyüpspor37%
Draw27%
Goztepe36%
Eyüpspor30%
Draw27%
Goztepe43%
Eyüpspor36%
Draw27%
Goztepe36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Goztepe
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
9
AttackIn forecast
39
10
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporGoztepe
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
50%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
21%
On target shareContext
38%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
57%
Box shareContext
59%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.17
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
4.40
BlocksContext
4.40
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
76%
Save rateContext
86%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
371
PassesContext
249
308
Accurate passesContext
175
83%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.17
FoulsContext
17.50
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
16.40
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
24%
On target shareContext
34%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
59%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.22
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
65%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
424
PassesContext
276
360
Accurate passesContext
201
85%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.20
FoulsContext
16.20
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel328 km1,452 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 1,452 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
77C. Meraş
18N. Mujakić
4Luccas Claro
6R. Yalçın
2Calegari
99S. Sešlar
10K. Demirbay
30Y. Kayan
9M. Thiam
70D. Drăguş
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
6Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
39Janderson
9Juan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Goztepe-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Goztepe · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Eyüpspor wins1 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Mar 2025Goztepe1–1Eyüpspor
- 19 Oct 2024Eyüpspor1–0Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.50 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 5.00 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.60 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.51
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+33%league 49%
Fouls26.7league 26.5
Penalties0.17league 0.25
Home wins50%league 38%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Apr 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor6 games · scored 4 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Goztepe6 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
7
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
