Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Eyüpspor had 22.1 days of rest, Goztepe 22 and had to travel 328 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel328 kmRest days22.1 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Eyüpspor33%
Draw23%
Goztepe43%
Eyüpspor35%
Draw26%
Goztepe38%
Eyüpspor31%
Draw24%
Goztepe45%
Eyüpspor26%
Draw22%
Goztepe51%
Eyüpspor33%
Draw23%
Goztepe44%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
20°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 88%
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 32
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Goztepe
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
9
AttackIn forecast
39
10
DefenceIn forecast
36
11
Form indexContext
7
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporGoztepe
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
17%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
16.83
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
27%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.67
59%
Box shareContext
76%
3%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.33
Shots allowedContext
18.17
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
5.83
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
57%
Save rateContext
56%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
378
PassesContext
277
321
Accurate passesContext
194
85%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.83
FoulsContext
13.83
15.67
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
17.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
13.30
54%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.60
14.80
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.20
BlocksContext
4.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
61%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
354
PassesContext
256
294
Accurate passesContext
180
83%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.00
FoulsContext
16.20
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
LWLLL
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Goztepe
LLLDD
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 7 · 2 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -4.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 22Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.7 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
31H. Moldovan(G)
21S. Giordano
33Z. Jules
4S. Yaşar
88C. Massanga
77K. Michalak
70M. Demir
28T. İlter
8David Costa
9Y. Barası
29A. Abdullahi
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1A. Özçimen(G)
26M. Bokele
19J. Sonko Sundberg
4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor
20N. Miroshi
5Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Goztepe-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Goztepe · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–1 H | L 2–4 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Eyüpspor wins3 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 50%
- 28 Feb 2026Goztepe0–0Eyüpspor
- 27 Sep 2025Eyüpspor0–0Goztepe
- 16 Mar 2025Goztepe1–1Eyüpspor
- 19 Oct 2024Eyüpspor1–0Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.33 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 83% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 83% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 10.17 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.83 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Eyüpspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.78 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.20 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.31league 3.95
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+59%league 42%
Fouls24.6league 24.4
Penalties0.38league 0.34
Home wins44%league 45%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25H · Trabzonspor1–25
- D14 Sep 25A · Kayserispor1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor6 games · scored 2 · conceded 16
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Goztepe6 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
