Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Eyüpspor had 16.1 days of rest, Kasimpasa 15.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days16.1 · 15.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Eyüpspor40%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa33%
Eyüpspor39%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa34%
Eyüpspor40%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa33%
Eyüpspor32%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa41%
Eyüpspor39%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Kasimpasa
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
9
AttackIn forecast
21
10
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporKasimpasa
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
38%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.75
ShotsContext
11.75
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.57
24%
On target shareContext
19%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
55%
Box shareContext
56%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.88
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
4.57
BlocksContext
3.57
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
74%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
367
PassesContext
326
299
Accurate passesContext
254
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.13
FoulsContext
16.25
15.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.60
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
21%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
55%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.90
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.44
BlocksContext
3.22
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
70%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
405
PassesContext
355
340
Accurate passesContext
282
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.80
FoulsContext
14.60
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
4Luccas Claro
6R. Yalçın
2Calegari
20M. Łęgowski
10K. Demirbay
30Y. Kayan
11S. Gürler
9M. Thiam
7H. Akbunar
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
6Cem Üstündag
11A. Kol
34F. Diabaté
7M. Fall
17K. Kanatsızkuş
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Kasimpasa · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins0 draws2 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 10 May 2025Eyüpspor0–3Kasimpasa
- 13 Dec 2024Kasimpasa2–0Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.13 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Eyüpspor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.13 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 5.01 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Eyüpspor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.23 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.87
Red cards0.17league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 56%
Fouls29.7league 26.7
Penalties0.67league 0.29
Home wins33%league 37%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Aug 25H · Trabzonspor0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor8 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Kasimpasa8 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
