Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Eyüpspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Eyüpspor had 6.9 days of rest, Kayserispor 7 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Kayserispor27%
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Kayserispor27%
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Kayserispor27%
Eyüpspor40%
Draw27%
Kayserispor33%
Eyüpspor47%
Draw26%
Kayserispor27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 27
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Kayserispor
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
9
AttackIn forecast
16
10
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporKayserispor
0.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.21
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
43%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
11.14
ShotsContext
11.36
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.08
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
59%
Box shareContext
57%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
2.93
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
3.77
BlocksContext
3.27
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.18
77%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
376
PassesContext
360
307
Accurate passesContext
288
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.57
FoulsContext
13.14
15.21
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
30%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
60%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
3.10
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.40
BlocksContext
3.75
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
78%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
375
PassesContext
371
303
Accurate passesContext
299
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.62
11.80
FoulsContext
14.30
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Kayserispor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel613 km999 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 999 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
5E. Ortakaya
6R. Yalçın
11S. Gürler
20M. Łęgowski
33T. Stepanenko
40P. Ampem
8E. Akbaba
70D. Drăguş
19U. Bozok
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
15Y. Ait Bennasser
30A. Opoku
8L. Bénes
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
10João Mendes
20Carlos Mané
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Kayserispor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.29
Kayserispor · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins2 draws0 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025Eyüpspor1–1Kayserispor
- 15 Sep 2024Kayserispor2–2Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.64 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 2.21 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 3.21 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.83 | 9.83 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.63 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.90 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.46
Red cards0.48league 0.27
Cards 5+67%league 47%
Fouls27.4league 26.2
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins33%league 36%
Eyüpspor4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L9 Nov 25A · Samsunspor0–13
- D16 Mar 25A · Goztepe1–16
- W19 Jan 25H · Alanyaspor3–01
- W3 Nov 24H · Hatayspor2–03
Kayserispor5 with this referee
Record0-5-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Oct 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–25
- D30 Aug 25A · Kocaelispor1–12
- D5 Jan 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–14
- D5 Oct 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D2 Sep 23A · Antalyaspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor14 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Kayserispor14 games · scored 14 · conceded 31
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
9
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
