Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Kocaelispor. Eyüpspor had 8.8 days of rest, Kocaelispor 9 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days8.8 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eyüpspor35%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor36%
Eyüpspor38%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor35%
Eyüpspor34%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor37%
Eyüpspor28%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor43%
Eyüpspor35%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor36%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Kocaelispor
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
9
AttackIn forecast
16
10
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporKocaelispor
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
54%
Scored inContext
58%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.38
ShotsContext
10.29
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.39
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.73
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
60%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.30
14.17
Shots allowedContext
10.75
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.24
4.27
BlocksContext
3.48
3.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
73%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
374
PassesContext
367
304
Accurate passesContext
295
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.46
FoulsContext
14.70
14.54
Fouls sufferedContext
13.46
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.30
ShotsContext
10.80
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
36%
On target shareContext
28%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.78
16.50
Shots allowedContext
9.80
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
5.00
BlocksContext
3.50
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
61%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
372
PassesContext
401
301
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.30
FoulsContext
15.33
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
5B. Ozyurt
68J. Onguéné
17Talha Ülvan
55B. Gezek
28T. İlter
23L. Pintor
8E. Akbaba
10Á. Torres
19U. Bozok
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
8H. Keïta
14Show
17D. Churlinov
10K. Linetty
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kocaelispor-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.42
Kocaelispor · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | W 3–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 69 · 0.96 per game | 27 of 69 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 4 Oct 2025Kocaelispor1–0Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.92 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 29% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 38% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.90 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 8.22 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 6/21 | 13% 3/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.62 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 13/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 8/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 7.45 | 7.70 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.46
Red cards0.50league 0.21
Cards 5+100%league 45%
Fouls16.0league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.26
Home wins50%league 38%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Dec 25H · Antalyaspor2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor24 games · scored 19 · conceded 35
3
6
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Kocaelispor24 games · scored 21 · conceded 25
4
0-15
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
