Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rizespor. Eyüpspor had 6 days of rest, Rizespor 8.1 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days6 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eyüpspor33%
Draw27%
Rizespor40%
Eyüpspor37%
Draw27%
Rizespor36%
Eyüpspor33%
Draw27%
Rizespor39%
Eyüpspor27%
Draw26%
Rizespor47%
Eyüpspor33%
Draw27%
Rizespor39%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 36
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Rizespor
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
9
AttackIn forecast
22
10
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporRizespor
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
53%
Scored inContext
75%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.03
ShotsContext
11.94
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
32%
On target shareContext
31%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.66
59%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.15
13.72
Shots allowedContext
13.31
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.07
BlocksContext
3.87
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
71%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
375
PassesContext
379
304
Accurate passesContext
309
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.88
FoulsContext
13.56
14.97
Fouls sufferedContext
12.94
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.60
ShotsContext
12.40
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
31%
On target shareContext
38%
5.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
56%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.70
BlocksContext
3.90
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
374
PassesContext
384
298
Accurate passesContext
313
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.80
FoulsContext
14.30
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
4Luccas Claro
5B. Ozyurt
2Calegari
28T. İlter
26Metehan Altunbaş
55B. Gezek
20M. Łęgowski
22Denis Radu
19U. Bozok
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rizespor+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.31
Rizespor · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-8-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 AL 2–5 H |
| Points | 29 of 93 · 0.94 per game | 37 of 93 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins0 draws3 Rizespor wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 13 Dec 2025Rizespor3–0Eyüpspor
- 20 Apr 2025Rizespor1–0Eyüpspor
- 23 Nov 2024Eyüpspor1–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.81 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.90 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.41 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.62 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 15/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 10/29 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.31 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 4.43
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls23.7league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins31%league 41%
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L8 Feb 26H · Istanbul Basaksehir1–21
- L17 Aug 25A · Besiktas1–22
Rizespor3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D25 Jan 26H · Alanyaspor1–13
- L18 Oct 25H · Trabzonspor1–23
- W25 May 25A · Besiktas2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor32 games · scored 26 · conceded 45
4
7
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
7
61-75
7
16
76-90
Rizespor32 games · scored 44 · conceded 46
6
4
0-15
4
7
16-30
8
5
31-45
10
5
46-60
4
9
61-75
12
16
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
