Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Eyüpspor had 6 days of rest, Rizespor 4.9 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days6 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eyüpspor34%
Draw26%
Rizespor40%
Eyüpspor40%
Draw26%
Rizespor34%
Eyüpspor35%
Draw27%
Rizespor39%
Eyüpspor27%
Draw26%
Rizespor47%
Eyüpspor34%
Draw27%
Rizespor39%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 14
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Rizespor
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
9
AttackIn forecast
22
10
DefenceIn forecast
35
19
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporRizespor
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.58
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.76
25%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.75
ShotsContext
18.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
29%
On target shareContext
29%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
67%
Box shareContext
50%
6%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.25
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
67%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
394
PassesContext
473
334
Accurate passesContext
408
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.50
FoulsContext
12.25
18.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.90
ShotsContext
15.80
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
37%
On target shareContext
30%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
55%
Box shareContext
53%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.00
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.80
BlocksContext
3.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
343
PassesContext
428
279
Accurate passesContext
361
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.50
FoulsContext
12.10
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
LLWL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,016 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Rizespor
WLWL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km1,034 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 37 · 6 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,016 km | 1,034 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
31H. Moldovan(G)
21S. Giordano
33Z. Jules
5J. El Yamiq
7Talha Ülvan
88C. Massanga
77K. Michalak
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
8David Costa
98B. Boutobba
29A. Abdullahi
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
54M. Pala
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
79I. Doicaru
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rizespor+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Eyüpspor wins0 draws3 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 9 May 2026Eyüpspor4–0Rizespor
- 13 Dec 2025Rizespor3–0Eyüpspor
- 20 Apr 2025Rizespor1–0Eyüpspor
- 23 Nov 2024Eyüpspor1–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 8.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 11.33 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Eyüpspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.00 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.64league 3.57
Red cards0.07league 0.16
Cards 5+7%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 26.1
Penalties0.14league 0.38
Home wins57%league 46%
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Jan 26A · Alanyaspor3–11
- W24 May 25H · Antalyaspor2–11
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Mar 26H · Antalyaspor1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor4 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Rizespor4 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
