Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Samsunspor. Eyüpspor had 8.1 days of rest, Samsunspor 4 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days8.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Eyüpspor28%
Draw26%
Samsunspor46%
Eyüpspor34%
Draw27%
Samsunspor38%
Eyüpspor28%
Draw26%
Samsunspor46%
Eyüpspor22%
Draw25%
Samsunspor53%
Eyüpspor28%
Draw27%
Samsunspor45%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 36
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Samsunspor
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
9
AttackIn forecast
15
10
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporSamsunspor
0.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
46%
Scored inContext
71%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.11
ShotsContext
12.61
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
30%
6.35
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
59%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.96
13.71
Shots allowedContext
11.36
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
3.85
BlocksContext
3.17
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
71%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
380
PassesContext
423
309
Accurate passesContext
353
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.79
FoulsContext
14.57
15.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.82
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.70
ShotsContext
12.70
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
30%
On target shareContext
37%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
59%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.90
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.30
BlocksContext
2.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
68%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
394
PassesContext
487
319
Accurate passesContext
411
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.60
FoulsContext
14.90
16.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 703 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
77C. Meraş
16S. Yaşar
4Luccas Claro
17Talha Ülvan
22Denis Radu
55B. Gezek
20M. Łęgowski
2Calegari
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
26Metehan Altunbaş
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
55Y. Çift
2J. Mendes
10J. Ntcham
29A. Makoumbou
20Y. Kayan
19P. Ndiaye
9Marius
11E. Kılınç
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
0.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.36
Samsunspor · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Points | 22 of 81 · 0.81 per game | 33 of 81 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Eyüpspor wins0 draws2 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 9 Nov 2025Samsunspor1–0Eyüpspor
- 4 May 2025Samsunspor3–0Eyüpspor
- 8 Dec 2024Eyüpspor3–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.68 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.46 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 46% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 61% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Eyüpspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.76 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.19 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 9.82 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 11/25 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 3.89 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Eyüpspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 9.89 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.19league 4.39
Red cards0.42league 0.21
Cards 5+61%league 44%
Fouls26.4league 26.1
Penalties0.31league 0.27
Home wins36%league 40%
Eyüpspor6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D26 Jan 26H · Besiktas2–23
- D6 Dec 25H · Kayserispor1–13
- L9 Nov 25A · Samsunspor0–13
- D16 Mar 25A · Goztepe1–16
- W19 Jan 25H · Alanyaspor3–01
Samsunspor4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · Goztepe0–22
- W9 Nov 25H · Eyüpspor1–02
- W26 Apr 25A · BB Bodrumspor2–14
- W16 Feb 25A · Konyaspor1–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor28 games · scored 19 · conceded 41
3
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
14
76-90
Samsunspor28 games · scored 32 · conceded 37
6
3
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
9
11
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
5
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
