Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Trabzonspor. Eyüpspor had 3.2 days of rest, Trabzonspor 4 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days3.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eyüpspor21%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor55%
Eyüpspor24%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor51%
Eyüpspor21%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor55%
Eyüpspor16%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor63%
Eyüpspor21%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor54%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Trabzonspor
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
9
AttackIn forecast
54
10
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporTrabzonspor
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.12
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
50%
Scored inContext
92%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.31
ShotsContext
15.08
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.58
Shots in the boxContext
9.48
60%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.62
Shots allowedContext
12.92
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
4.04
BlocksContext
3.58
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
72%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
381
PassesContext
440
310
Accurate passesContext
383
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.58
FoulsContext
11.73
14.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.08
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
13.70
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
37%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
4.50
BlocksContext
2.89
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
377
PassesContext
480
303
Accurate passesContext
428
80%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.20
FoulsContext
12.30
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km883 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 883 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17.9 | 17 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
77C. Meraş
16S. Yaşar
5B. Ozyurt
2Calegari
20M. Łęgowski
55B. Gezek
22Denis Radu
26Metehan Altunbaş
19U. Bozok
10Á. Torres
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
11O. Tufan
10E. Muçi
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
18M. Nayir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Trabzonspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.38
Trabzonspor · Away
2.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-2
- Scored
- 2.08
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 3–4 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 75 · 0.88 per game | 54 of 75 · 2.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins1 draws2 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 100%
- 25 Oct 2025Trabzonspor2–0Eyüpspor
- 10 Feb 2025Trabzonspor1–0Eyüpspor
- 1 Sep 2024Eyüpspor0–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.12 | |
| Match goals | 2.15 | 3.12 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 58% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 65% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 8% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Eyüpspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.87 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 9.96 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 10/23 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 6/23 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 4.03 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 15/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Eyüpspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 4.39
Red cards0.17league 0.21
Cards 5+39%league 44%
Fouls26.4league 25.9
Penalties0.44league 0.27
Home wins39%league 39%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D30 Jan 26A · Antalyaspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor26 games · scored 19 · conceded 37
3
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Trabzonspor26 games · scored 52 · conceded 29
5
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
7
31-45
14
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
11
6
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
5
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
