Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
17th · 27 pts · 33 played
LLDWW
2–1Full time
Alanyaspor
10th · 37 pts · 33 played
DLLDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 6.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 6.9 and had to travel 563 km.
Away travel563 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük35%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor36%
Fatih Karagümrük36%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor37%
Fatih Karagümrük36%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor35%
Fatih Karagümrük29%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor43%
Fatih Karagümrük35%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükAlanyaspor
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
13
AttackIn forecast
18
25
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükAlanyaspor
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
61%
Scored inContext
73%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.91
3.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.97
31%
On target shareContext
33%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
54%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.90
13.48
Shots allowedContext
10.48
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
3.07
BlocksContext
2.88
3.87
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
67%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
359
PassesContext
393
283
Accurate passesContext
329
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.21
FoulsContext
12.09
14.09
Fouls sufferedContext
14.18
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
11.20
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
38%
5.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
52%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
75%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
358
PassesContext
399
282
Accurate passesContext
332
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.50
FoulsContext
11.80
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel563 km246 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 563 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 246 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 91.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
99F. Bekleviç(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
8B. Özcan
88T. Ahmed
23S. Larsson
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
30Bruno Viana
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
8Enes Keskin
42G. Makouta
58Maestro
94F. Hadërgjonaj
11Ruan
16U. Hwang
12M. Elia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
1.13points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Alanyaspor · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-11-4
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HL 0–3 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Besiktas | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 96 · 0.84 per game | 34 of 96 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws2 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 21 Dec 2025Alanyaspor2–0Fatih Karagümrük
- 25 Feb 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Alanyaspor
- 6 Oct 2023Alanyaspor2–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 2.39 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 61% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 27% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 3.61 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 8.54 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 13/32 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 9/32 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 4.57 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 21/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 9/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.13 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.80 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.92league 4.43
Red cards0.08league 0.21
Cards 5+8%league 44%
Fouls22.4league 26.0
Penalties0.08league 0.30
Home wins50%league 42%
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Apr 26A · Konyaspor0–31
- L13 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa0–10
Alanyaspor3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Apr 26A · Kasimpasa0–14
- L31 Jan 26H · Eyüpspor1–32
- D3 Nov 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük33 games · scored 29 · conceded 53
3
5
0-15
6
8
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
4
15
61-75
9
7
76-90
Alanyaspor33 games · scored 40 · conceded 39
7
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
10
46-60
7
5
61-75
12
10
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
