Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 9 pts · 20 played
DLLLL
1–0Full time
Antalyaspor
13th · 20 pts · 20 played
LLDWD
Our take
Fatih Karagümrük were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 6.8 days of rest, Antalyaspor 7.8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw28%
Antalyaspor29%
Fatih Karagümrük41%
Draw27%
Antalyaspor32%
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw28%
Antalyaspor29%
Fatih Karagümrük36%
Draw29%
Antalyaspor35%
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw28%
Antalyaspor29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 15
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükAntalyaspor
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
13
AttackIn forecast
11
25
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükAntalyaspor
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
55%
Scored inContext
70%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.90
ShotsContext
7.90
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
28%
On target shareContext
41%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.26
53%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.22
14.75
Shots allowedContext
13.75
6.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.26
BlocksContext
3.05
4.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
65%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
358
PassesContext
330
281
Accurate passesContext
260
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.40
FoulsContext
11.50
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.47
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.70
ShotsContext
6.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.11
28%
On target shareContext
28%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
4.22
55%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.90
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.90
BlocksContext
2.60
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
352
PassesContext
318
277
Accurate passesContext
245
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.80
FoulsContext
11.20
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
8B. Özcan
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
23S. Larsson
80S. Babicka
70Serginho
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
2S. Karakoc
8R. Safouri
88D. Šarić
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Antalyaspor-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.90
Antalyaspor · Away
1.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | L 2–5 H |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 57 · 0.32 per game | 20 of 57 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws1 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Antalyaspor1–2Fatih Karagümrük
- 29 Apr 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–1Antalyaspor
- 9 Dec 2023Antalyaspor2–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.95 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 55% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.35 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 9.30 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 5/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.60 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 6/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.20 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.42
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+33%league 46%
Fouls26.0league 25.9
Penalties0.33league 0.26
Home wins27%league 36%
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Nov 25A · Eyüpspor1–12
- W30 Aug 25A · Antalyaspor2–12
Antalyaspor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L8 Nov 25H · Besiktas1–33
- L30 Aug 25H · Fatih Karagümrük1–20
- W2 May 25H · Konyaspor1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük20 games · scored 17 · conceded 39
1
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
11
61-75
6
6
76-90
Antalyaspor20 games · scored 19 · conceded 33
2
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
